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November 14, 2014

ARI⇄TBR

ARI won this trade +$4.8M surplus ARI won this trade +1.3 WAR
ARIARI Kevin Towers net +$4.8M net +1.3
received +$8.8M+$8.8M ± $16M expected surplus · +$4.8M realized received 1.5 ± 2 expected · 1.3 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2015 odds 8% → 10% (+2.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Jeremy HellicksonP·28y·R/R
+$9.2M+$9.2M± $16M exp surplusrealized +$4.8M 1.5± 2 exp WARrealized 1.3
Prior
league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form 1.1/yr over 1.8 season
Talent
0.75/yr blended
Horizon
2.0 control yrs
TBRTBR Andrew Friedman net −$4.8M net -1.3
received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $27M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 2.4 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2015 odds 21% → 16% (-4.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Justin WilliamsOF·19y·L/R
+$1.8M+$1.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.0
Prior
#52 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent
0.21/yr blended
Horizon
5.5 control yrs
Andrew VelazquezSS·20y·B/R
+$1.8M+$1.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.0
Prior
#243 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent
0.21/yr blended
Horizon
5.5 control yrs

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.

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Decision-maker records extend to 1933; resource-controlled WAR and payroll metrics cover 1985–2026. Data sources include FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, the Chadwick Bureau register, the Lahman Database, prospect rankings from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and FanGraphs, and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0).
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