NYY⇄ARI⇄DET

NYYNYY Brian Cashman net +$80.0M net +8.1

received +$12.8M+$12.8M ± $43M expected surplus · +$88.8M realized received 3.6 ± 5 expected · 11.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2015 odds 23% → 37% (+13.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Didi GregoriusSS·25y·L/R

+$12.6M+$12.6M± $43M exp surplusrealized +$88.8M 3.6± 5 exp WARrealized 11.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.3/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.71/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ARIARI Kevin Towers net +$32.0M net +0.0

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $36M expected surplus · +$120.8M realized received 2.2 ± 4 expected · 11.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2015 odds 13% → 10% (-2.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Domingo Leyba2B/3B·19y·B/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Robbie RayP·23y·L/L

+$0.7M+$0.7M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$122.4M 1.0± 4 exp WARrealized 11.3

Prior

#356 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.18/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Dave Dombrowski net −$112.0M net -8.1

received +$15.2M+$15.2M ± $51M expected surplus · +$8.8M realized received 3.9 ± 6 expected · 2.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 2015 odds 8% → 5% (-2.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Shane GreeneP·26y·R/R

+$14.8M+$14.8M± $51M exp surplusrealized +$8.8M 3.9± 6 exp WARrealized 2.9

Prior

#465 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.9/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

0.71/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.