TBR⇄SEA⇄DET

TBRTBR Andrew Friedman net −$39.2M net +2.9

received +$41.6M+$41.6M ± $70M expected surplus · +$35.2M realized received 12.1 ± 9 expected · 9.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2014 odds 22% → 17% (-4.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Drew SmylyP·25y·L/L

+$24.5M+$24.5M± $42M exp surplusrealized +$12.0M 5.9± 5 exp WARrealized 4.0

Prior

#68 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.9/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

1.18/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Nick Franklin2B·23y·B/R

+$15.8M+$15.8M± $52M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 5.0± 6 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.23/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.1/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

0.91/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Willy AdamesSS·18y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$26.4M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 5.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Jack Zduriencik net −$1.6M net +1.6

received +$57.6M+$57.6M ± $27M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 5.3 ± 3 expected · 1.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2014 odds 7% → 7% (-0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Austin JacksonOF·27y·R/R

+$57.2M+$57.2M± $27M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 5.3± 3 exp WARrealized 1.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 4.0/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

2.67/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Dave Dombrowski net +$40.8M net -4.5

received +$86.4M+$86.4M ± $27M expected surplus · +$74.4M realized received 6.3 ± 3 expected · 6.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 2014 odds 55% → 65% (+9.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

David PriceP·28y·L/L

+$86.0M+$86.0M± $27M exp surplusrealized +$74.4M 6.3± 3 exp WARrealized 6.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.99/yr

Evidence

recent form 4.2/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

3.14/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.