RRosternomics
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Nationals WSN

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GM: Omar Minaya

Overview

REBUILD ↗ rising
cheap & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.71× league · TAB -4.9
-4.9TAB — talent above budget23rd/30
+5.6WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)12th/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars12th/30
-9.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag28th/30
29%dead money %13th/30
0.512win %17th/30
25.1roster fWAR24th/30
-2surplus $M (value vs cost)12th/30
$49Mpayroll $M23rd/30

Roster

CFEndy Chavez 135GBrad Wilkerson 42GJose Macias 15G
LFBrad Wilkerson 95GRonald Calloway 50GJose Macias 41G
RFVladimir Guerrero 112GRonald Calloway 47GBrad Wilkerson 16G
SSOrlando Cabrera 162GJamey Carroll 14GHenry Mateo 2G
2BJose Vidro 137GHenry Mateo 43GJamey Carroll 11G
3BJamey Carroll 67GTodd Zeile 64GFernando Tatis 49G
1BWil Cordero 123GBrad Wilkerson 27GJeff Liefer 21G
STARTERSJavier Vazquez 5.9WARLivan Hernandez 4.4WARTomo Ohka 3.0WART.J. Tucker 1.0WARZach Day 0.9WAR
CBrian Schneider 98GMichael Barrett 68GEdwards Guzman 4G
DHWil Cordero 2GEdwards Guzman 2GBrian Schneider 2G
BULLPEN★ Rocky Biddle 34svLuis Ayala 19hJoey Eischen 15hScott Stewart 13hJulio Manon 6hHector Almonte 3hDan Smith 2hEric Knott 0h
CBrian Schneider 98 · Michael Barrett 68 · Edwards Guzman 4
1BWil Cordero 123 · Brad Wilkerson 27 · Jeff Liefer 21
2BJose Vidro 137 · Henry Mateo 43 · Jamey Carroll 11
3BJamey Carroll 67 · Todd Zeile 64 · Fernando Tatis 49
SSOrlando Cabrera 162 · Jamey Carroll 14 · Henry Mateo 2
LFBrad Wilkerson 95 · Ronald Calloway 50 · Jose Macias 41
CFEndy Chavez 135 · Brad Wilkerson 42 · Jose Macias 15
RFVladimir Guerrero 112 · Ronald Calloway 47 · Brad Wilkerson 16
DHWil Cordero 2 · Edwards Guzman 2 · Brian Schneider 2
SPJavier Vazquez 5.9 · Livan Hernandez 4.4 · Tomo Ohka 3.0 · T.J. Tucker 1.0 · Zach Day 0.9
BP★ Rocky Biddle 34 · Luis Ayala 19 · Joey Eischen 15 · Scott Stewart 13 · Julio Manon 6 · Hector Almonte 3 · Dan Smith 2 · Eric Knott 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2003 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Javier Vazquez 26 arb 345.9 6.0 +4.5
Livan Hernandez 28 FA-elig 334.4 3.8 +4.1
Orlando Cabrera 28 FA-elig 1624.2 3.3 +4.1
Brad Wilkerson 26 pre-arb 1463.9 0.3 +6.5
Jose Vidro 28 FA-elig 1443.2 5.5 +0.1
Tomo Ohka 27 arb 353.0 0.3 +5.1
Vladimir Guerrero 28 FA-elig 1123.0 11.5 -6.2
T.J. Tucker 24 arb 461.0 0.3 +1.4
Zach Day 25 pre-arb 230.9 0.3 +1.3
Luis Ayala 25 pre-arb 650.6 0.3 +0.8
Joe Vitiello 33 – 380.6 – –
Brian Schneider 26 arb 1080.6 0.3 +0.7
Wil Cordero 31 FA-elig 1300.6 0.6 +0.4
Tony Armas 25 arb 50.5 2.1 -1.2
Claudio Vargas 25 – 230.4 – –
Joey Eischen 33 FA-elig 710.3 0.8 -0.3
Michael Barrett 26 arb 700.3 2.6 -2.1
Todd Zeile↔ NYY 37 FA-elig 340.2 0.5 -0.1
Scott Stewart 27 pre-arb 510.2 0.3 +0.1
Chad Cordero 21 – 120.2 – –
Eric Knott 28 – 130.2 – –
Jose Mercedes 32 – 50.0 – –
Roy Corcoran 23 – 50.0 – –
Matt Cepicky 25 – 5-0.0 – –
Britt Reames 29 – 2-0.0 – –
Hector Almonte↔ BOS 27 – 28-0.0 – –
Vic Darensbourg↔ COL 32 – 7-0.1 – –
Julio Manon 30 – 23-0.1 – –
Bryan Hebson 27 – 2-0.1 – –
Anthony Ferrari 25 – 4-0.2 – –
Scott Downs 27 – 1-0.2 0.3 -0.6
Jamey Carroll 29 pre-arb 105-0.2 0.3 -0.6
Endy Chavez 25 pre-arb 141-0.2 0.3 -0.7
Henry Mateo 26 pre-arb 100-0.3 0.3 -0.9
Tim Drew 24 – 6-0.4 – –
Ronald Calloway 26 pre-arb 126-0.6 0.3 -1.4
Sun-Woo Kim 25 – 4-0.6 – –
Rocky Biddle 27 arb 73-0.7 0.3 -1.6
Dan Smith 27 arb 32-0.8 0.3 -1.7
Jeff Liefer↔ TBR 28 arb 35-1.0 0.3 -2.0
Fernando Tatis 28 FA-elig 53-1.0 6.5 -8.3
Edwards Guzman 26 – 52-1.1 – –
Jose Macias 31 arb 111-1.3 0.8 -3.1

Key additions (new vs 2002)

PlayerfWAR
Livan Hernandez4.4
Luis Ayala0.6
Joe Vitiello0.6
Claudio Vargas0.4
Todd Zeile0.2
Chad Cordero0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2002)

Player2002 fWAR
Bartolo Colon2.1
Masato Yoshii1.4
Troy O'Leary0.2
Bruce Chen0.1
Scott Strickland0.0
Chris Truby-0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2003 payroll
$48.6M

What the front office was committed to as of 2003, 2003–2009. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2003200420052006200720082009
Vladimir Guerrero287.000$11.5MFREE AGENT
Fernando Tatis286.000$6.5MFREE AGENT
Jose Vidro286.000$5.5M$7.0M$7.0M$7.0MFREE AGENT
Livan Hernandez287.000$3.8M$6.0M$8.0M$5.6MFREE AGENT$537k
Orlando Cabrera286.000$3.3M$3.8MFREE AGENT
Joey Eischen339.000$750k$1.3M$1.0M$1.3MFREE AGENT
Wil Cordero3111.000$600kFREE AGENT$600k
Todd Zeile3714.000$510kFREE AGENT
Jose Mercedes329.000—FREE AGENT
Joe Vitiello338.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2003200420052006200720082009
Javier Vazquez265.000$6.0MFREE AGENT
Michael Barrett265.000$2.6MFREE AGENT
Tony Armas254.000$2.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Macias314.000$825kARB 3FREE AGENT
Tomo Ohka274.000$340kARB 3FREE AGENT
Rocky Biddle273.000$320kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
T.J. Tucker243.000$310kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Schneider263.000$310kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Smith274.000$305kARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Downs273.000$300kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Liefer284.000$255kARB 3FREE AGENT
Vic Darensbourg325.000—FREE AGENT
Tim Drew243.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Britt Reames293.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (19)

PlayerAgeSvc2003200420052006200720082009
Scott Stewart272.000$327kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Wilkerson262.000$315kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Day251.000$302kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Henry Mateo262.000$300kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Endy Chavez252.000$300kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jamey Carroll291.000$300kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ronald Calloway260.000$300kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Ayala250.000$300kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edwards Guzman26–—
Hector Almonte27–—
Sun-Woo Kim252.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Claudio Vargas250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Hebson27–—
Eric Knott28–—
Matt Cepicky25–—
Anthony Ferrari25–—
Julio Manon30–—
Roy Corcoran230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Cordero210.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Nationals 2003; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.