RRosternomics
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Nationals WSN

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GM: Omar Minaya

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.6× league · TAB -12.5
-12.5TAB — talent above budget27th/30
-8.2WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)24th/30
3.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars27th/30
-10.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag29th/30
50%dead money %27th/30
0.414win %27th/30
15.3roster fWAR28th/30
-11surplus $M (value vs cost)17th/30
$40Mpayroll $M26th/30

Roster

CFEndy Chavez 127GBrad Wilkerson 18GJuan Rivera 13G
LFTerrmel Sledge 79GBrad Wilkerson 59GRyan Church 12G
RFJuan Rivera 104GTerrmel Sledge 43GRonald Calloway 15G
SSMaicer Izturis 23GJamey Carroll 10GAndy Fox 5G
2BJose Vidro 105GJamey Carroll 51GBrendan Harris 11G
3BTony Batista 155GJamey Carroll 13GBrendan Harris 7G
1BBrad Wilkerson 86GNick Johnson 73GTerrmel Sledge 10G
STARTERSLivan Hernandez 5.2WARTomo Ohka 0.9WARZach Day 0.9WARSun-Woo Kim 0.7WARJohn Patterson 0.6WAR
CBrian Schneider 133GEinar Díaz 44G
DHJose Vidro 4GMatt Cepicky 2G
BULLPEN★ Chad Cordero 14svLuis Ayala 21hJoe Horgan 11hFrancis Beltran 5hChad Bentz 5hT.J. Tucker 3hJoey Eischen 2hJeremy Fikac 1h
CBrian Schneider 133 · Einar Díaz 44
1BBrad Wilkerson 86 · Nick Johnson 73 · Terrmel Sledge 10
2BJose Vidro 105 · Jamey Carroll 51 · Brendan Harris 11
3BTony Batista 155 · Jamey Carroll 13 · Brendan Harris 7
SSMaicer Izturis 23 · Jamey Carroll 10 · Andy Fox 5
LFTerrmel Sledge 79 · Brad Wilkerson 59 · Ryan Church 12
CFEndy Chavez 127 · Brad Wilkerson 18 · Juan Rivera 13
RFJuan Rivera 104 · Terrmel Sledge 43 · Ronald Calloway 15
DHJose Vidro 4 · Matt Cepicky 2
SPLivan Hernandez 5.2 · Tomo Ohka 0.9 · Zach Day 0.9 · Sun-Woo Kim 0.7 · John Patterson 0.6
BP★ Chad Cordero 14 · Luis Ayala 21 · Joe Horgan 11 · Francis Beltran 5 · Chad Bentz 5 · T.J. Tucker 3 · Joey Eischen 2 · Jeremy Fikac 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2004 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Livan Hernandez 29 FA-elig 365.2 6.0 +2.9
Brad Wilkerson 27 arb 1605.0 0.4 +8.2
Brian Schneider 27 arb 1352.1 0.3 +3.2
Luis Ayala 26 pre-arb 811.9 0.3 +3.0
Terrmel Sledge 27 pre-arb 1331.8 0.3 +2.7
Juan Rivera 25 arb 1341.4 0.3 +2.1
Tomo Ohka 28 arb 150.9 2.3 -0.7
Jamey Carroll 30 pre-arb 1020.9 0.3 +1.2
Zach Day 26 pre-arb 190.9 0.3 +1.2
Jose Vidro 29 FA-elig 1100.8 7.0 -5.6
Chad Cordero 22 pre-arb 690.8 0.3 +1.1
T.J. Tucker 25 – 540.7 – –
Sun-Woo Kim 26 arb 430.7 0.3 +0.8
Jon Rauch↔ CHW 25 – 90.6 – –
John Patterson 26 pre-arb 190.6 0.3 +0.7
Endy Chavez 26 – 1320.6 0.3 +0.7
Nick Johnson 25 arb 730.5 1.2 -0.4
Scott Downs 28 – 120.3 0.3 +0.2
Joey Eischen 34 FA-elig 220.3 1.3 -0.8
Gary Majewski 24 – 160.1 – –
Rigo Beltran 34 – 20.0 – –
Roy Corcoran 24 – 50.0 – –
Shawn Hill 23 – 30.0 – –
Francis Beltran↔ CHC 24 – 11-0.1 – –
Matt Cepicky 26 – 32-0.1 – –
Joe Horgan 27 – 47-0.1 – –
Jeremy Fikac 29 arb 19-0.2 0.3 -0.7
Maicer Izturis 23 – 32-0.2 – –
Peter Bergeron 26 arb 11-0.3 0.3 -0.9
Tony Batista 30 FA-elig 157-0.3 1.5 -2.1
Alex Gonzalez↔ CHC 31 FA-elig 35-0.3 2.4 -3.0
Henry Mateo 27 – 40-0.4 – –
Valentino Pascucci 25 – 32-0.4 – –
Tony Armas 26 arb 16-0.4 2.1 -2.8
Ryan Church 25 – 30-0.4 – –
Carl Everett↔ CHW 33 FA-elig 39-0.4 1.4 -2.2
Luis Lopez 30 arb 11-0.5 0.3 -1.1
Josh Labandeira 25 – 7-0.5 – –
Chad Bentz 24 pre-arb 36-0.6 0.3 -1.3
Brendan Harris↔ CHC 23 – 20-0.6 – –
Andy Fox↔ TEX 33 FA-elig 34-0.6 0.3 -1.4
Einar Díaz 31 FA-elig 55-0.6 2.6 -3.6
Orlando Cabrera↔ BOS 29 FA-elig 103-0.8 3.8 -5.1
Ronald Calloway 27 pre-arb 46-0.8 0.3 -1.6
Rocky Biddle 28 arb 47-0.8 1.9 -3.4
Claudio Vargas 26 pre-arb 45-1.4 0.3 -2.7

Key additions (new vs 2003)

PlayerfWAR
Terrmel Sledge1.8
Juan Rivera1.4
Jon Rauch0.6
John Patterson0.6
Nick Johnson0.5
Gary Majewski0.1

Key subtractions (gone from 2003)

Player2003 fWAR
Javier Vazquez5.9
Vladimir Guerrero3.0
Joe Vitiello0.6
Wil Cordero0.6
Michael Barrett0.3
Todd Zeile0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2004 payroll
$39.8M

What the front office was committed to as of 2004, 2004–2010. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Jose Vidro297.000$7.0M$7.0M$7.0MFREE AGENT
Livan Hernandez298.000$6.0M$8.0M$5.6MFREE AGENT$537k$900k
Orlando Cabrera297.000$3.8MFREE AGENT
Einar Díaz318.000$2.6MFREE AGENT
Alex Gonzalez3110.000$2.4MFREE AGENT
Tony Batista308.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Carl Everett3311.000$1.4MFREE AGENT
Joey Eischen3410.000$1.3M$1.0M$1.3MFREE AGENT
Andy Fox338.000$333kFREE AGENT
Rigo Beltran347.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Tomo Ohka285.000$2.3MFREE AGENT
Tony Armas265.000$2.1MFREE AGENT
Rocky Biddle284.000$1.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Johnson253.000$1.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Wilkerson273.000$375kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Schneider274.000$350kARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Lopez303.000$350kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Fikac293.000$350kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Rivera253.000$312kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sun-Woo Kim263.000$303kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Peter Bergeron265.000$300kFREE AGENT
Endy Chavez263.000$300kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Downs284.000$300kARB 3FREE AGENT
T.J. Tucker254.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT
Henry Mateo273.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (21)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Luis Ayala261.000$318kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Day262.000$315kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ronald Calloway271.000$312kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Patterson262.000$310kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jamey Carroll302.000$310kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Claudio Vargas261.000$308kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Terrmel Sledge270.000$300kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Cordero221.000$300kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Bentz240.000$300kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gary Majewski240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jon Rauch252.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Francis Beltran24–—
Matt Cepicky26–—
Valentino Pascucci25–—
Ryan Church250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Horgan270.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shawn Hill230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roy Corcoran241.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brendan Harris230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Labandeira25–—
Maicer Izturis230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Nationals 2004; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.