CHW⇄WSN

CHWCHW Kenny Williams net +$53.6M net +7.3

received +$44.0M+$18.4M ± $20M expected surplus · +$35.2M realized received 4.3 ± 2 expected · 4.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2003 odds 34% → 70% (+35.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Bartolo ColónP·30y·R/R

+$43.9M+$18.2M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$35.2M 4.1± 2 exp WARrealized 4.8

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 4.0/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

2.81/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Jorge Nunez

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

WSNWSN Omar Minaya net −$53.6M net -7.3

received +$8.8M+$8.8M ± $34M expected surplus · −$18.4M realized received 2.4 ± 4 expected · -2.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 2003 odds 9% → 2% (-6.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Orlando HernándezP·37y·R/R

+$7.4M+$7.4M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.0± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.9/yr over 2.0 seasons

Talent

1.87/yr blended

Horizon

0.6 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Rocky BiddleP·27y·R/R

+$4.4M+$4.4M± $25M exp surplusrealized −$12.8M 1.4± 3 exp WARrealized -1.5

Prior

#51 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

0.35/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Jeff Liefer1B/OF·28y·L/R

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $23M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized -1.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.30/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.4/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

-0.01/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.