WSN⇄SFG

WSNWSN Omar Minaya net +$240.0M net +17.7

received +$16.8M+$16.8M ± $25M expected surplus · +$240.8M realized received 3.6 ± 3 expected · 18.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 2003 odds 1% → 2% (+1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Liván HernándezP·28y·R/R

+$19.4M+$19.4M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$247.2M 3.6± 2 exp WARrealized 19.8

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.4/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

2.39/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Edwards GuzmánC/3B·26y·L/R

−$2.2M−$2.2M± $16M exp surplusrealized −$6.4M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized -1.1

Prior

#1363 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.9/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

-0.01/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SFGSFG Brian Sabean net −$240.0M net -17.7

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 0.9 ± 3 expected · 1.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 2003 odds 77% → 64% (-12.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Matt BlankP·27y·L/L

+$0.2M+$0.2M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.6± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#346 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.14/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Jim BrowerP·30y·R/R

−$0.6M−$0.6M± $9M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 0.3± 1 exp WARrealized 1.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 2.0 seasons

Talent

0.23/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.46 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.