BOS⇄WSN

BOSBOS Mike Port net −$8.8M net +0.6

received +$38.4M+$22.4M ± $19M expected surplus · −$8.8M realized received 4.3 ± 2 expected · 1.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2002 odds 77% → 80% (+2.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Cliff FloydOF·29y·L/R

+$38.2M+$22.2M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$8.8M 4.3± 2 exp WARrealized 1.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.26/yr

Evidence

recent form 4.2/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

2.84/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

WSNWSN Larry Beinfest net +$8.8M net -0.6

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $33M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.8 ± 4 expected · 0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 2002 odds 7% → 6% (-1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Sun-Woo KimP·24y·R/R

+$4.8M+$4.8M± $32M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.6± 4 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

Composite #94.0 pedigree (Baseball America #94 (2000)) — fell off 2 lists since, regressed — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

0.32/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Seung Song

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.