WSN⇄DET

WSNWSN Larry Beinfest net +$1.6M net +0.8

received +$12.8M+$12.8M ± $38M expected surplus · −$8.0M realized received 3.5 ± 5 expected · -0.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 2002 odds 4% → 6% (+2.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

José Macias3B/OF·30y·B/R

+$13.0M+$13.0M± $38M exp surplusrealized −$8.0M 3.5± 5 exp WARrealized -0.9

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.8/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

1.02/yr blended

Horizon

4.4 control yrs × 0.78 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Randy Smith net −$1.6M net -0.8

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $21M expected surplus · −$9.6M realized received 0.1 ± 3 expected · -1.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 2002 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chris Truby3B·28y·R/R

−$2.4M−$2.4M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$9.6M 0.1± 3 exp WARrealized -1.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.3/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

0.04/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.75 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.