HOU⇄WSN

HOUHOU Gerry Hunsicker net +$5.6M net +3.4

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $22M expected surplus · +$4.8M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · 3.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 2002 odds 23% → 30% (+7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Geoff Blum3B·29y·B/R

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$4.8M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized 3.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.3/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

-0.07/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

WSNWSN Larry Beinfest net −$5.6M net -3.4

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $21M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.1 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 2002 odds 9% → 6% (-2.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chris Truby3B·28y·R/R

−$2.4M−$2.4M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.1± 3 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.3/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

0.04/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.75 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.