RRosternomics
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Blue Jays TOR

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President of baseball ops: Mark Shapiro · GM: Ross Atkins

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.96× league · TAB -10.0
-10.0TAB — talent above budget24th/30
-8.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)21st/30
4.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars23rd/30
-4.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag11th/30
30%dead money %10th/30
0.451win %21st/30
23.7roster fWAR23rd/30
-42surplus $M (value vs cost)22nd/30
$125Mpayroll $M16th/30

Roster

CFKevin Pillar 142GRandal Grichuk 26GJonathan Davis 9G
LFTeoscar Hernández 87GBilly McKinney 28GDwight Smith Jr. 19G
RFRandal Grichuk 102GTeoscar Hernández 35GBilly McKinney 13G
SSAledmys Díaz 95GLourdes Gurriel Jr. 46GRichard Urena 20G
2BDevon Travis 101GYangervis Solarte 28GLourdes Gurriel Jr. 24G
3BYangervis Solarte 83GAledmys Díaz 38GRussell Martin 21G
1BJustin Smoak 134GKendrys Morales 18GRowdy Tellez 17G
STARTERSRyan Borucki 1.7WARMarcus Stroman 1.4WARSam Gaviglio 0.8WARAaron Sanchez 0.6WARMarco Estrada 0.4WAR
CRussell Martin 71GLuke Maile 66GDanny Jansen 29G
DHKendrys Morales 99GCurtis Granderson 21GJustin Smoak 9G
BULLPEN★ Ken Giles 26svRyan Tepera 19hTyler Clippard 15hDanny Barnes 8hJoe Biagini 5hJake Petricka 1hTim Mayza 1hMark Leiter Jr. 1h
CRussell Martin 71 · Luke Maile 66 · Danny Jansen 29
1BJustin Smoak 134 · Kendrys Morales 18 · Rowdy Tellez 17
2BDevon Travis 101 · Yangervis Solarte 28 · Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 24
3BYangervis Solarte 83 · Aledmys Díaz 38 · Russell Martin 21
SSAledmys Díaz 95 · Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 46 · Richard Urena 20
LFTeoscar Hernández 87 · Billy McKinney 28 · Dwight Smith Jr. 19
CFKevin Pillar 142 · Randal Grichuk 26 · Jonathan Davis 9
RFRandal Grichuk 102 · Teoscar Hernández 35 · Billy McKinney 13
DHKendrys Morales 99 · Curtis Granderson 21 · Justin Smoak 9
SPRyan Borucki 1.7 · Marcus Stroman 1.4 · Sam Gaviglio 0.8 · Aaron Sanchez 0.6 · Marco Estrada 0.4
BP★ Ken Giles 26 · Ryan Tepera 19 · Tyler Clippard 15 · Danny Barnes 8 · Joe Biagini 5 · Jake Petricka 1 · Tim Mayza 1 · Mark Leiter Jr. 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2018 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Randal Grichuk 26 arb 1243.0 2.8 +7.5
Justin Smoak 31 FA-elig 1472.4 4.1 +4.1
J.A. Happ↔ NYY 35 FA-elig 202.1 8.4 -1.3
Luke Maile 27 arb 682.0 0.6 +6.3
Ryan Borucki 24 – 171.7 0.3 +5.5
Kevin Pillar 29 arb 1421.5 3.2 +1.8
Aledmys Díaz 27 pre-arb 1301.5 2.0 +3.0
Marcus Stroman 27 arb 191.4 6.5 -1.6
Russell Martin 35 FA-elig 901.3 20.0 -15.7
Seunghwan Oh↔ COL 35 pre-arb 480.9 1.2 +2.0
Teoscar Hernández 25 pre-arb 1340.9 0.5 +2.5
Sam Gaviglio 28 pre-arb 260.8 0.4 +2.4
Danny Jansen 23 – 310.7 0.1 +2.2
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 24 pre-arb 650.6 1.4 +0.8
Kendrys Morales 35 FA-elig 1300.6 11.0 -8.9
Aaron Sanchez 25 arb 200.6 2.7 -0.7
Josh Donaldson↔ CLE 32 FA-elig 360.5 15.9 -14.1
Roberto Osuna↔ HOU 23 arb 150.5 2.1 -0.3
Curtis Granderson↔ MIL 37 FA-elig 1040.5 4.2 -2.5
Tyler Clippard 33 FA-elig 730.5 1.5 +0.1
Marco Estrada 34 FA-elig 280.4 13.0 -11.7
Reese McGuire 23 – 140.4 0.1 +1.2
Tim Mayza 26 pre-arb 370.3 0.3 +0.8
Rowdy Tellez 23 – 230.3 0.1 +1.1
Steve Pearce↔ BOS 35 FA-elig 260.3 2.1 -1.0
Ryan Tepera 30 arb 680.3 0.6 +0.5
Billy McKinney↔ NYY 23 – 360.3 0.2 +0.9
Aaron Loup↔ PHI 30 FA-elig 500.3 1.5 -0.7
Richard Urena 22 pre-arb 400.2 0.2 +0.6
John Axford↔ LAD 35 FA-elig 450.2 1.4 -0.7
Thomas Pannone 24 – 120.2 0.4 +0.2
Sean Reid-Foley 22 – 70.1 0.1 +0.4
Dwight Smith Jr. 25 – 350.1 0.1 +0.3
Rhiner Cruz 31 pre-arb 20.0 0.3 -0.1
Mike Hauschild 28 – 20.0 0.0 +0.1
Ken Giles↔ HOU 27 arb 210.0 1.8 -1.6
Oliver Drake↔ ANA 31 arb 20.0 0.0 +0.1
David Paulino 24 pre-arb 70.0 0.1 -0.1
Brandon Cumpton 29 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.0 -0.0
Murphy Smith 30 – 3-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Darnell Sweeney 27 pre-arb 2-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Dalton Pompey 25 pre-arb 5-0.0 0.0 -0.1
José Manuel Fernández 25 – 13-0.0 – –
Jake Petricka 30 arb 41-0.0 0.6 -0.7
Carlos Ramírez↔ OAK 27 – 2-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Deck McGuire↔ ANA 29 – 4-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Taylor Guerrieri 25 pre-arb 9-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Jon Berti 28 – 4-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Danny Barnes 28 pre-arb 47-0.1 0.6 -0.9
Jonathan Davis 26 – 20-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Luis Santos 27 – 15-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Jaime García↔ CHC 31 FA-elig 25-0.1 6.1 -6.4
Gio Urshela 26 – 19-0.1 – –
Mark Leiter Jr.↔ PHI 27 pre-arb 8-0.1 0.2 -0.7
Brandon Drury↔ NYY 25 arb 8-0.2 0.2 -0.7
Anthony Alford 23 pre-arb 13-0.2 0.1 -0.6
Justin Shafer 25 – 6-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Chris Rowley 27 – 2-0.2 0.0 -0.6
Yangervis Solarte 30 arb 122-0.2 4.1 -5.0
Preston Guilmet↔ STL 30 pre-arb 6-0.3 0.1 -1.0
Gift Ngoepe 28 pre-arb 13-0.3 0.0 -1.1
Joe Biagini 28 – 50-0.6 – –
Devon Travis 27 arb 103-1.0 1.4 -4.9

Key additions (new vs 2017)

PlayerfWAR
Randal Grichuk3.0
Ryan Borucki1.7
Aledmys Díaz1.5
Seunghwan Oh0.9
Sam Gaviglio0.8
Danny Jansen0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 2017)

Player2017 fWAR
Dominic Leone1.5
Joe Smith1.0
Francisco Liriano0.8
Brett Anderson0.6
Raffy Lopez0.3
Tom Koehler0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2018 payroll
$125.0M
2019 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2018, 2018–2024. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2018; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Russell Martin3511.150$20.0MFREE AGENT
Marco Estrada348.035$13.0MFREE AGENT
Kendrys Morales359.170$11.0MFREE AGENT
J.A. Happ359.047$8.4MFREE AGENT
Jaime García319.047$6.1MFREE AGENT
Curtis Granderson3714.077$4.2MFREE AGENT
Justin Smoak317.077$4.1MFREE AGENT
Steve Pearce3511.000$2.1MFREE AGENT
Tyler Clippard338.148$1.5MFREE AGENT
John Axford357.118$1.4MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Josh Donaldson325.158$15.9MFREE AGENT
Marcus Stroman273.148$6.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yangervis Solarte304.000$4.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Pillar293.113$3.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randal Grichuk263.033$2.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Sanchez253.069$2.7MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roberto Osuna233.000$2.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ken Giles273.113$1.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Loup305.040$1.5MFREE AGENT
Devon Travis273.000$1.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Seunghwan Oh353.000$1.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Petricka304.044$608kARB 3FREE AGENT
Gio Urshela263.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (40)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Aledmys Díaz271.100$2.0MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.240.000$1.4MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Tepera302.008$575kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Barnes281.028$562kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Maile271.099$558kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Teoscar Hernández250.103$501kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Thomas Pannone240.000$437kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Gaviglio280.096$419kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Mayza260.047$322kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rhiner Cruz311.000$261kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Borucki240.000$255kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Leiter Jr.271.000$220kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Drury252.034$191kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Richard Urena220.031$182kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Billy McKinney230.000$153kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Jansen230.000$146kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Santos27–$138k
Sean Reid-Foley220.000$108kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dwight Smith Jr.251.000$108kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Shafer250.000$97kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Guerrieri250.027$88kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rowdy Tellez230.000$79kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Davis260.000$79kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Paulino240.144$76kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Reese McGuire230.000$73kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Alford230.068$64kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Preston Guilmet300.079$53kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Deck McGuire290.018$31kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dalton Pompey251.119$26kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Oliver Drake311.094$25kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Hauschild281.000$21kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Darnell Sweeney270.046$18kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jon Berti280.000$15kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Murphy Smith30–$15k
Brandon Cumpton290.127$12kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gift Ngoepe280.072$9kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Ramírez270.031$8kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Rowley270.041$6kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Biagini282.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Manuel Fernández25–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Blue Jays 2018; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.