RRosternomics
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Blue Jays TOR

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President of baseball ops: Mark Shapiro · GM: Ross Atkins

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.3× league · TAB -12.6
-12.6TAB — talent above budget26th/30
-9.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)25th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars18th/30
-8.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag28th/30
49%dead money %24th/30
0.469win %19th/30
24.9roster fWAR23rd/30
-86surplus $M (value vs cost)27th/30
$170Mpayroll $M8th/30

Roster

CFKevin Pillar 153GEzequiel Carrera 10GTeoscar Hernández 5G
LFEzequiel Carrera 91GSteve Pearce 85GTeoscar Hernández 18G
RFJosé Bautista 143GMichael Saunders 54GEzequiel Carrera 27G
SSRyan Goins 87GTroy Tulowitzki 64GRichard Urena 20G
2BDarwin Barney 73GRyan Goins 56GDevon Travis 50G
3BJosh Donaldson 105GDarwin Barney 44GChris Coghlan 18G
1BJustin Smoak 151GKendrys Morales 12GSteve Pearce 10G
STARTERSMarcus Stroman 3.6WARJ.A. Happ 2.8WARMarco Estrada 2.5WARJoe Biagini 1.4WARBrett Anderson 0.6WAR
CRussell Martin 83GMiguel Montero 56GLuke Maile 46G
DHKendrys Morales 129GJosé Bautista 11GJosh Donaldson 7G
BULLPEN★ Roberto Osuna 39svRyan Tepera 17hDominic Leone 11hDanny Barnes 11hAaron Loup 6hJeff Beliveau 2hTim Mayza 2hMatt Dermody 1h
CRussell Martin 83 · Miguel Montero 56 · Luke Maile 46
1BJustin Smoak 151 · Kendrys Morales 12 · Steve Pearce 10
2BDarwin Barney 73 · Ryan Goins 56 · Devon Travis 50
3BJosh Donaldson 105 · Darwin Barney 44 · Chris Coghlan 18
SSRyan Goins 87 · Troy Tulowitzki 64 · Richard Urena 20
LFEzequiel Carrera 91 · Steve Pearce 85 · Teoscar Hernández 18
CFKevin Pillar 153 · Ezequiel Carrera 10 · Teoscar Hernández 5
RFJosé Bautista 143 · Michael Saunders 54 · Ezequiel Carrera 27
DHKendrys Morales 129 · José Bautista 11 · Josh Donaldson 7
SPMarcus Stroman 3.6 · J.A. Happ 2.8 · Marco Estrada 2.5 · Joe Biagini 1.4 · Brett Anderson 0.6
BP★ Roberto Osuna 39 · Ryan Tepera 17 · Dominic Leone 11 · Danny Barnes 11 · Aaron Loup 6 · Jeff Beliveau 2 · Tim Mayza 2 · Matt Dermody 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2017 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Josh Donaldson 31 FA-elig 1134.9 17.0 -0.4
Marcus Stroman 26 arb 343.6 3.4 +8.7
Justin Smoak 30 FA-elig 1583.4 4.1 +7.3
Roberto Osuna 22 pre-arb 662.9 0.6 +9.4
J.A. Happ 34 FA-elig 252.8 13.0 -3.4
Marco Estrada 33 FA-elig 332.5 14.5 -5.9
Russell Martin 34 FA-elig 911.7 20.0 -14.4
Dominic Leone 25 arb 651.5 0.5 +4.6
Joe Biagini 27 pre-arb 441.4 0.5 +4.0
Kevin Pillar 28 arb 1541.3 0.6 +3.7
Joe Smith↔ CLE 33 FA-elig 381.0 1.9 +1.6
Ryan Tepera 29 pre-arb 731.0 0.5 +2.8
Francisco Liriano↔ HOU 33 FA-elig 180.8 6.5 -3.9
Brett Anderson↔ CHC 29 FA-elig 70.6 1.9 +0.2
Aaron Loup 29 arb 700.6 1.1 +0.8
Ezequiel Carrera 30 FA-elig 1310.4 1.2 +0.3
Devon Travis 26 pre-arb 500.4 0.5 +0.7
Raffy Lopez 29 pre-arb 240.3 0.2 +0.9
Tom Koehler↔ MIA 31 arb 150.3 3.2 -2.2
Teoscar Hernández↔ HOU 24 pre-arb 260.3 0.1 +0.8
Troy Tulowitzki 32 FA-elig 660.2 20.0 -19.2
Tim Mayza 25 – 190.2 0.1 +0.6
Dwight Smith Jr. 24 – 120.2 0.5 +0.2
Ryan Goins 29 arb 1430.2 0.5 +0.2
Danny Barnes 27 pre-arb 600.2 0.5 +0.2
Norichika Aoki↔ HOU 35 arb 120.2 0.6 +0.1
Darrell Ceciliani 27 pre-arb 30.1 0.4 +0.1
Carlos Ramírez 26 pre-arb 120.1 0.1 +0.2
Steve Pearce 34 FA-elig 920.1 6.2 -6.0
César Valdez↔ OAK 32 pre-arb 70.1 0.2 +0.0
TJ House 27 pre-arb 20.0 0.0 +0.1
Glenn Sparkman 25 – 20.0 0.3 -0.3
Leonel Campos 29 pre-arb 13-0.0 0.2 -0.3
Aaron Sanchez 24 arb 8-0.0 0.5 -0.6
Taylor Cole 27 – 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Chris Smith 28 – 4-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Lucas Harrell 32 pre-arb 4-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Anthony Alford 22 – 4-0.0 0.4 -0.6
Luis Santos 26 – 10-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Ian Parmley 27 – 3-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Chris Rowley 26 – 6-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Mike Ohlman 26 – 7-0.1 – –
Michael Saunders↔ PHI 30 FA-elig 12-0.2 1.3 -1.8
Jeff Beliveau 30 pre-arb 19-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Casey Lawrence↔ SEA 29 – 4-0.2 0.0 -0.7
Richard Urena 21 – 21-0.2 0.1 -0.8
J.P. Howell 34 FA-elig 16-0.2 3.0 -3.7
Kendrys Morales 34 FA-elig 150-0.3 10.0 -11.1
Matt Dermody 26 pre-arb 23-0.3 0.2 -1.3
Mat Latos 29 FA-elig 3-0.4 1.5 -2.7
Mike Bolsinger 29 pre-arb 11-0.4 0.2 -1.4
Nick Tepesch↔ MIN 28 arb 3-0.4 0.8 -2.1
Rob Refsnyder↔ NYY 26 pre-arb 32-0.5 0.2 -1.8
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 32 FA-elig 10-0.5 1.2 -3.0
Miguel Montero↔ CHC 33 FA-elig 32-0.5 5.9 -7.7
Darwin Barney 31 FA-elig 129-0.7 2.9 -5.1
José Bautista 36 FA-elig 157-0.7 18.0 -20.4
Jason Grilli↔ TEX 40 FA-elig 26-0.7 1.7 -4.2
Chris Coghlan 32 FA-elig 36-0.7 0.5 -3.0
Luke Maile 26 pre-arb 46-0.8 0.5 -3.0

Key additions (new vs 2016)

PlayerfWAR
Dominic Leone1.5
Joe Smith1.0
Brett Anderson0.6
Raffy Lopez0.3
Tom Koehler0.3
Teoscar Hernández0.3

Key subtractions (gone from 2016)

Player2016 fWAR
Edwin Encarnación3.6
R.A. Dickey0.8
Joaquín Benoit0.6
Brett Cecil0.4
Gavin Floyd0.2
Jimmy Paredes0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2017 payroll
$170.4M
2018 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2017, 2017–2023. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2017; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (18)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
Russell Martin3410.150$20.0MFREE AGENT
Troy Tulowitzki3210.033$20.0MFREE AGENT
José Bautista3611.165$18.0MFREE AGENT
Marco Estrada337.035$14.5MFREE AGENT
J.A. Happ348.047$13.0MFREE AGENT
Kendrys Morales348.170$10.0MFREE AGENT
Francisco Liriano3310.104$6.5MFREE AGENT
Steve Pearce3410.000$6.2MFREE AGENT
Miguel Montero3310.031$5.9MFREE AGENT
Justin Smoak306.077$4.1MFREE AGENT
J.P. Howell3412.000$3.0MFREE AGENT
Joe Smith339.091$1.9MFREE AGENT
Brett Anderson298.000$1.9MFREE AGENT
Jason Grilli4010.016$1.7MFREE AGENT
Mat Latos297.013$1.5MFREE AGENT
Michael Saunders306.138$1.3MFREE AGENT
Jarrod Saltalamacchia3210.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Chris Coghlan328.000$535kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (6)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
Josh Donaldson314.158$17.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Tom Koehler314.016$3.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Darwin Barney315.085$2.9MFREE AGENT
Ezequiel Carrera303.039$1.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Loup294.040$1.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Norichika Aoki355.000$600kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (36)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
Marcus Stroman262.148$3.4MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Tepesch282.136$750kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Pillar282.113$555kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roberto Osuna222.000$552kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dominic Leone251.123$548kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Goins292.106$548kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Devon Travis262.000$545kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Biagini271.000$543kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Tepera291.008$543kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dwight Smith Jr.240.000$535kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Sanchez242.069$535kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Barnes271.028$474kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Maile260.114$459kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Darrell Ceciliani270.127$406kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Alford220.000$398kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Glenn Sparkman250.000$266kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Leonel Campos290.089$202kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Dermody260.031$196kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Raffy Lopez291.026$172kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Bolsinger291.072$167kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rob Refsnyder260.158$156kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
César Valdez320.045$154kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Mayza250.000$134kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Beliveau301.154$134kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Rowley260.000$123kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Ramírez260.031$94kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Richard Urena210.000$91kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Santos26–$88k
Teoscar Hernández240.052$87kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lucas Harrell322.083$50kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Smith28–$35k
Casey Lawrence290.000$35kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Cole270.000$26kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
TJ House271.104$23kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ian Parmley27–$20k
Mike Ohlman26–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Blue Jays 2017; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.