TOR⇄KCR

TORTOR Mark Shapiro net +$6.4M net +0.9

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $16M expected surplus · +$6.4M realized received 0.1 ± 2 expected · 0.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2018 odds 1% → 2% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Sam GaviglioP·28y·R/R

−$3.9M−$3.9M± $16M exp surplusrealized +$6.4M 0.1± 2 exp WARrealized 0.9

Prior

#170 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.4/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

0.02/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.55 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

KCRKCR Dayton Moore net −$6.4M net -0.9

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 2018 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.