CLE⇄TOR

CLECLE Chris Antonetti net −$18.4M net +0.2

received +$35.2M+$35.2M ± $17M expected surplus · −$17.6M realized received 4.6 ± 2 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 2018 odds 80% → 81% (+1.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Josh Donaldson3B·32y·R/R

+$35.0M+$35.0M± $17M exp surplusrealized −$17.6M 4.6± 2 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 6.8/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

4.58/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

TORTOR Mark Shapiro net +$18.4M net -0.2

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $19M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 1.1 ± 2 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2018 odds 2% → 2% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Julian MerryweatherP·26y·R/R

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

#158 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.