RRosternomics
𝕏

Blue Jays TOR

‹ ›

President of baseball ops: Mark Shapiro · GM: Ross Atkins

Overview

REBUILD ↗ rising
cheap & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.47× league · TAB -3.0
-3.0TAB — talent above budget18th/30
-5.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)20th/30
5.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars17th/30
-6.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag20th/30
48%dead money %22nd/30
0.414win %26th/30
21.9roster fWAR23rd/30
+11surplus $M (value vs cost)8th/30
$61Mpayroll $M29th/30

Roster

CFTeoscar Hernández 79GRandal Grichuk 62GJonathan Davis 33G
LFLourdes Gurriel Jr. 63GTeoscar Hernández 46GDerek Fisher 38G
RFRandal Grichuk 92GBilly McKinney 43GBrandon Drury 18G
SSBo Bichette 42GRichard Urena 13GBrandon Drury 5G
2BCavan Biggio 85GBrandon Drury 16GBreyvic Valera 14G
3BVladimir Guerrero Jr. 96GBrandon Drury 65GEric Sogard 6G
1BJustin Smoak 89GRowdy Tellez 57GBrandon Drury 12G
STARTERSTrent Thornton 2.0WARWilmer Font 0.8WARJacob Waguespack 0.7WARMatt Shoemaker 0.6WARClay Buchholz 0.1WAR
CDanny Jansen 103GLuke Maile 44GReese McGuire 30G
DHRowdy Tellez 45GJustin Smoak 30GVladimir Guerrero Jr. 24G
BULLPEN★ Ken Giles 23svTim Mayza 18hDerek Law 8hSam Gaviglio 5hBuddy Boshers 4hJustin Shafer 3hElvis Luciano 0hNick Kingham 0h
CDanny Jansen 103 · Luke Maile 44 · Reese McGuire 30
1BJustin Smoak 89 · Rowdy Tellez 57 · Brandon Drury 12
2BCavan Biggio 85 · Brandon Drury 16 · Breyvic Valera 14
3BVladimir Guerrero Jr. 96 · Brandon Drury 65 · Eric Sogard 6
SSBo Bichette 42 · Richard Urena 13 · Brandon Drury 5
LFLourdes Gurriel Jr. 63 · Teoscar Hernández 46 · Derek Fisher 38
CFTeoscar Hernández 79 · Randal Grichuk 62 · Jonathan Davis 33
RFRandal Grichuk 92 · Billy McKinney 43 · Brandon Drury 18
DHRowdy Tellez 45 · Justin Smoak 30 · Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 24
SPTrent Thornton 2.0 · Wilmer Font 0.8 · Jacob Waguespack 0.7 · Matt Shoemaker 0.6 · Clay Buchholz 0.1
BP★ Ken Giles 23 · Tim Mayza 18 · Derek Law 8 · Sam Gaviglio 5 · Buddy Boshers 4 · Justin Shafer 3 · Elvis Luciano 0 · Nick Kingham 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2019 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Marcus Stroman↔ NYM 28 arb 213.0 4.9 +4.8
Cavan Biggio 24 – 1002.6 0.4 +8.2
Eric Sogard↔ TBR 33 FA-elig 732.5 0.1 +8.0
Freddy Galvis↔ CIN 29 FA-elig 1152.0 3.1 +3.5
Trent Thornton 25 pre-arb 322.0 0.6 +6.0
Ken Giles 28 arb 531.8 6.3 -0.3
Danny Jansen 24 pre-arb 1071.8 0.6 +5.4
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 25 pre-arb 841.8 1.9 +4.0
Bo Bichette 21 – 461.4 0.2 +4.5
Teoscar Hernández 26 arb 1251.3 0.6 +3.8
Reese McGuire 24 pre-arb 301.2 0.2 +3.8
Randal Grichuk 27 arb 1511.1 5.0 -1.4
Aaron Sanchez↔ HOU 26 arb 230.9 3.3 -0.3
Wilmer Font↔ NYM 29 FA-elig 230.8 0.3 +2.4
Jacob Waguespack 25 – 160.7 0.3 +1.8
Matt Shoemaker 32 FA-elig 50.6 3.5 -1.5
Justin Smoak 32 FA-elig 1210.5 8.0 -6.4
Daniel Hudson↔ WSN 32 FA-elig 450.4 1.0 +0.5
Anthony Kay 24 – 30.4 0.1 +1.3
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 20 – 1230.3 0.5 +0.5
Joe Biagini↔ HOU 29 arb 500.3 0.7 +0.2
Jason Adam 27 pre-arb 230.3 0.2 +0.7
T.J. Zeuch 23 – 50.3 0.1 +0.8
Javy Guerra↔ WSN 33 FA-elig 110.2 0.2 +0.5
Clay Buchholz 34 FA-elig 120.1 3.0 -2.6
Sam Gaviglio 29 pre-arb 520.1 0.6 -0.2
Buddy Boshers 31 pre-arb 280.1 0.2 +0.2
David Phelps↔ CHC 32 FA-elig 170.0 1.0 -1.0
Breyvic Valera↔ NYY 27 pre-arb 50.0 0.0 +0.0
Tim Mayza 27 pre-arb 680.0 0.6 -0.5
Zack Godley↔ ARI 29 arb 60.0 0.1 -0.1
Derek Law 28 pre-arb 580.0 0.4 -0.4
Zac Rosscup↔ LAD 31 FA-elig 2-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Thomas Pannone 25 pre-arb 37-0.0 0.6 -0.6
Ryan Dull↔ NYY 29 arb 1-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Anthony Alford 24 pre-arb 16-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Ryan Feierabend 33 – 2-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Beau Taylor↔ OAK 29 – 1-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Sean Reid-Foley 23 pre-arb 9-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Yennsy Díaz 22 – 1-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Jimmy Cordero↔ CHW 27 – 1-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Nick Kingham↔ PIT 27 pre-arb 11-0.1 0.3 -0.6
Jonathan Davis 27 pre-arb 37-0.1 0.2 -0.6
Justin Shafer 26 pre-arb 34-0.1 0.3 -0.6
Brandon Drury 26 arb 120-0.1 1.3 -1.7
Neil Ramírez↔ CLE 30 arb 6-0.1 0.3 -0.7
Ryan Borucki 25 pre-arb 2-0.2 0.6 -1.1
Clayton Richard 35 FA-elig 10-0.2 3.0 -3.6
Jordan Romano 26 – 17-0.2 0.1 -0.8
Elvis Luciano 19 pre-arb 25-0.2 0.6 -1.2
Ryan Tepera 31 arb 23-0.2 1.5 -2.3
Kevin Pillar↔ SFG 30 FA-elig 5-0.3 0.2 -1.1
Derek Fisher↔ HOU 25 pre-arb 40-0.3 0.1 -1.1
Luke Maile 28 arb 45-0.4 0.6 -1.7
Rowdy Tellez 24 pre-arb 111-0.4 0.6 -1.7
Richard Urena 23 pre-arb 30-0.4 0.6 -1.9
Billy McKinney 24 pre-arb 84-0.4 0.6 -2.0
Sócrates Brito 26 arb 17-0.5 0.6 -2.2
Alen Hanson 26 – 18-0.6 0.1 -2.2
Brock Stewart↔ LAD 27 arb 10-0.7 0.4 -2.8
Edwin Jackson↔ DET 35 – 8-0.8 0.1 -2.8

Key additions (new vs 2018)

PlayerfWAR
Cavan Biggio2.6
Eric Sogard2.5
Freddy Galvis2.0
Trent Thornton2.0
Bo Bichette1.4
Wilmer Font0.8

Key subtractions (gone from 2018)

Player2018 fWAR
J.A. Happ2.1
Aledmys Díaz1.5
Seunghwan Oh0.9
Josh Donaldson0.5
Roberto Osuna0.5
Curtis Granderson0.5

Current & Historical Payroll

2019 payroll
$60.6M
2020 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2019, 2019–2025. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2019; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2019202020212022202320242025
Justin Smoak328.077$8.0MFREE AGENT
Freddy Galvis296.021$3.1MFREE AGENT
Clayton Richard3511.000$3.0MFREE AGENT
Clay Buchholz3410.021$3.0MFREE AGENT
David Phelps326.156$1.0MFREE AGENT
Daniel Hudson328.106$978kFREE AGENT
Javy Guerra338.000$173kFREE AGENT
Eric Sogard336.139$127kFREE AGENT
Edwin Jackson3512.040$82kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2019202020212022202320242025
Ken Giles284.113$6.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Randal Grichuk274.033$5.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Marcus Stroman284.148$4.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Shoemaker324.166$3.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Sanchez264.069$3.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Tepera313.008$1.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Biagini293.000$714kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Neil Ramírez304.001$273kARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Pillar304.113$180kARB 3FREE AGENT
Zack Godley294.000$111kARB 3FREE AGENT
Zac Rosscup313.164$44kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (41)

PlayerAgeSvc2019202020212022202320242025
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.251.000$1.9MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Drury262.165$1.3MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Gaviglio291.067$580kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Maile282.099$579kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Teoscar Hernández261.103$579kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Mayza270.156$568kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Borucki250.088$565kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Richard Urena230.094$562kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sócrates Brito261.074$561kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Thomas Pannone250.049$560kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Billy McKinney240.101$559kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Jansen240.050$559kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rowdy Tellez240.027$558kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trent Thornton250.000$555kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Elvis Luciano190.000$555kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.200.000$468kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Derek Law281.148$448kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brock Stewart271.059$435kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cavan Biggio240.000$385kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacob Waguespack250.000$343kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wilmer Font291.085$269kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Shafer260.034$254kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Kingham271.000$250kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Davis270.027$245kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Reese McGuire240.025$194kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bo Bichette210.000$188kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Buddy Boshers312.026$182kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Adam270.096$152kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Romano260.000$146kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Derek Fisher250.151$127kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Reid-Foley230.038$107kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Alford240.113$87kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alen Hanson262.038$87kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
T.J. Zeuch230.000$81kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Dull292.143$78kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Kay240.000$68kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Breyvic Valera270.081$25kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Feierabend33–$18k
Yennsy Díaz220.000$18kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Beau Taylor290.000$7kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jimmy Cordero270.051$7kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Blue Jays 2019; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.