TOR⇄BOS

TORTOR Mark Shapiro net +$25.6M net +4.0

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $21M expected surplus · +$16.8M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 4.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2018 odds 2% → 2% (-0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Santiago Espinal2B/3B·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$16.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 4.4

Prior

#298 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Dave Dombrowski net −$25.6M net -4.0

received +$6.4M+$6.4M ± $13M expected surplus · −$8.8M realized received 1.4 ± 2 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2018 odds 88% → 91% (+2.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Steve Pearce1B/OF·35y·R/R

+$6.2M+$6.2M± $13M exp surplusrealized −$8.8M 1.4± 2 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.6/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.97/yr blended

Horizon

1.7 control yr × 0.88 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.