RRosternomics
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Cardinals STL

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President of baseball ops: John Mozeliak · GM: Mike Girsch

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 1.11× league · TAB -3.2
-3.2TAB — talent above budget22nd/30
-0.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)20th/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars13th/30
-4.3dead WAR — sub-replacement drag13th/30
21%dead money %5th/30
0.512win %15th/30
32.4roster fWAR18th/30
-44surplus $M (value vs cost)17th/30
$179Mpayroll $M11th/30

Roster

CFMichael Siani 110GVictor Scott II 46GDylan Carlson 27G
LFBrendan Donovan 105GAlec Burleson 31GLars Nootbaar 30G
RFLars Nootbaar 74GAlec Burleson 49GJordan Walker 48G
SSMasyn Winn 148GBrandon Crawford 18GThomas Saggese 3G
2BNolan Gorman 105GBrendan Donovan 53GThomas Saggese 13G
3BNolan Arenado 146GJosé Fermín 13GBrendan Donovan 9G
1BPaul Goldschmidt 150GAlec Burleson 15GMatt Carpenter 5G
STARTERSSonny Gray 3.8WARMiles Mikolas 1.9WARAndre Pallante 1.8WARKyle Gibson 1.4WARLance Lynn 1.3WAR
CPedro Pagés 66GIván Herrera 56GWillson Contreras 51G
DHAlec Burleson 58GMatt Carpenter 40GWillson Contreras 33G
BULLPEN★ Ryan Helsley 49svAndrew Kittredge 37hJoJo Romero 30hRyan Fernandez 12hJohn King 9hKyle Leahy 3hGiovanny Gallegos 2hChris Roycroft 1h
CPedro Pagés 66 · Iván Herrera 56 · Willson Contreras 51
1BPaul Goldschmidt 150 · Alec Burleson 15 · Matt Carpenter 5
2BNolan Gorman 105 · Brendan Donovan 53 · Thomas Saggese 13
3BNolan Arenado 146 · José Fermín 13 · Brendan Donovan 9
SSMasyn Winn 148 · Brandon Crawford 18 · Thomas Saggese 3
LFBrendan Donovan 105 · Alec Burleson 31 · Lars Nootbaar 30
CFMichael Siani 110 · Victor Scott II 46 · Dylan Carlson 27
RFLars Nootbaar 74 · Alec Burleson 49 · Jordan Walker 48
DHAlec Burleson 58 · Matt Carpenter 40 · Willson Contreras 33
SPSonny Gray 3.8 · Miles Mikolas 1.9 · Andre Pallante 1.8 · Kyle Gibson 1.4 · Lance Lynn 1.3
BP★ Ryan Helsley 49 · Andrew Kittredge 37 · JoJo Romero 30 · Ryan Fernandez 12 · John King 9 · Kyle Leahy 3 · Giovanny Gallegos 2 · Chris Roycroft 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2024 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Sonny Gray 34 FA-elig 283.8 10.0 +5.9
Masyn Winn 22 pre-arb 1503.6 0.7 +14.3
Nolan Arenado 33 FA-elig 1523.2 35.0 -21.7
Brendan Donovan 27 pre-arb 1533.2 0.8 +12.5
Willson Contreras 32 FA-elig 842.7 18.0 -6.9
Ryan Helsley 29 arb 652.3 3.8 +5.6
Iván Herrera 24 pre-arb 722.1 0.7 +8.1
Miles Mikolas 35 FA-elig 321.9 18.5 -10.4
Andre Pallante 25 pre-arb 291.8 0.8 +6.7
Lars Nootbaar 26 arb 1091.7 0.8 +6.4
Kyle Gibson 36 FA-elig 301.4 12.0 -6.0
Lance Lynn 37 FA-elig 231.3 10.0 -4.5
Paul Goldschmidt 36 FA-elig 1541.2 26.0 -21.2
Michael Siani 24 pre-arb 1241.1 0.7 +3.7
Erick Fedde↔ CHW 31 FA-elig 100.8 2.4 +1.1
Ryan Fernandez 26 pre-arb 620.7 0.7 +2.4
Alec Burleson 25 pre-arb 1520.7 0.8 +2.0
Michael McGreevy 23 – 40.6 0.0 +2.5
Pedro Pagés 25 pre-arb 680.5 0.7 +1.2
Matthew Liberatore 24 pre-arb 600.4 0.7 +0.7
Kyle Leahy 27 pre-arb 330.3 0.7 +0.7
Nolan Gorman 24 pre-arb 1070.3 0.8 +0.6
Andrew Kittredge 34 FA-elig 740.3 2.6 -1.4
John King 29 arb 560.3 1.0 +0.1
Shawn Armstrong↔ CHC 33 FA-elig 110.2 0.4 +0.3
Chris Roycroft 27 pre-arb 270.1 0.7 -0.2
Brandon Crawford 37 FA-elig 290.1 2.0 -1.5
Steven Matz 33 FA-elig 120.0 12.5 -12.3
Adam Kloffenstein 23 – 10.0 0.0 +0.1
Gordon Graceffo 24 – 20.0 0.0 +0.0
Ryan Loutos 25 pre-arb 3-0.0 0.7 -0.8
Nick Robertson↔ TOR 25 pre-arb 8-0.0 0.7 -0.8
Thomas Saggese 22 – 18-0.0 0.1 -0.3
JoJo Romero 27 arb 65-0.1 0.9 -1.2
Luken Baker 27 pre-arb 21-0.1 0.7 -1.2
Tommy Pham↔ CHW 36 – 23-0.2 0.4 -1.1
Riley O'Brien 29 arb 8-0.2 0.7 -1.5
Matt Carpenter 38 FA-elig 59-0.2 0.7 -1.6
Zack Thompson 26 pre-arb 5-0.3 0.8 -1.9
Victor Scott II 23 pre-arb 53-0.4 0.7 -2.6
Giovanny Gallegos 32 FA-elig 21-0.5 5.8 -7.7
Jordan Walker 22 pre-arb 51-0.6 0.7 -3.5
José Fermín 25 pre-arb 45-0.7 0.7 -3.8
Dylan Carlson↔ TBR 25 arb 59-0.9 1.4 -5.1

Key additions (new vs 2023)

PlayerfWAR
Sonny Gray3.8
Kyle Gibson1.4
Lance Lynn1.3
Erick Fedde0.8
Ryan Fernandez0.7
Michael McGreevy0.6

Key subtractions (gone from 2023)

Player2023 fWAR
Jordan Montgomery2.6
Jack Flaherty1.6
Chris Stratton1.0
Jordan Hicks0.9
Tyler O'Neill0.7
Richie Palacios0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

2024 payroll
$179.2M
2025 guaranteed
$64.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2024, 2024–2030. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2024; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
Nolan Arenado3310.155$35.0M$21.0M$5.0M$6.0MFREE AGENT
Paul Goldschmidt3612.059$26.0MFREE AGENT
Miles Mikolas357.037$18.5MFREE AGENT
Willson Contreras327.108$18.0M$18.0M$18.0M$17.0M$20.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Steven Matz338.099$12.5MFREE AGENT
Kyle Gibson3610.039$12.0MFREE AGENT
Sonny Gray3410.061$10.0M$25.0M$11.0M$30.0MMUTUALFREE AGENT
Lance Lynn3712.119$10.0MFREE AGENT
Giovanny Gallegos327.000$5.8MFREE AGENT
Brandon Crawford3713.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Matt Carpenter3811.145$740kFREE AGENT
Tommy Pham368.107$426kFREE AGENT
Shawn Armstrong339.000$396kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (5)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
Ryan Helsley294.105$3.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Kittredge345.070$2.6MFREE AGENT
Erick Fedde314.099$2.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Dylan Carlson253.104$1.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
JoJo Romero273.045$860kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (26)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
John King292.148$1.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lars Nootbaar262.076$761kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brendan Donovan272.000$757kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andre Pallante251.166$757kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nolan Gorman241.139$756kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zack Thompson261.045$751kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alec Burleson251.029$750kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Walker220.149$747kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matthew Liberatore240.144$747kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Fermín251.000$744kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Iván Herrera240.063$743kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Masyn Winn220.045$742kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Siani242.000$742kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Riley O'Brien290.008$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Roycroft270.000$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Victor Scott II230.000$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luken Baker270.081$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Fernandez260.000$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Pagés250.000$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Leahy270.017$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Loutos250.000$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Robertson251.000$658kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Thomas Saggese220.000$76kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael McGreevy230.000$48kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gordon Graceffo240.000$12kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Kloffenstein23–$4k

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cardinals 2024; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.