CHW⇄LAD⇄STL

CHWCHW Chris Getz net +$27.2M net +3.3

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $37M expected surplus · +$28.8M realized received 2.8 ± 5 expected · 4.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2024 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Alexander AlbertusSS·19y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Jeral Perez3B·19y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Miguel Vargas3B·24y·R/R

−$3.4M−$3.4M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$28.8M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized 4.7

Prior

Composite #33.5 pedigree (Baseball America #30 (2023) / MLB Pipeline #37 (2023)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.30/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.5/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

0.03/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

LADLAD Andrew Friedman net −$40.0M net -0.7

received +$28.0M+$24.8M ± $66M expected surplus · −$11.2M realized received 16.6 ± 8 expected · 4.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2024 odds 73% → 83% (+10.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tommy Edman2B·29y·B/R

+$25.0M+$22.2M± $61M exp surplusrealized −$10.4M 14.9± 8 exp WARrealized 3.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.7/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

2.45/yr blended

Horizon

7.0 control yrs × 0.87 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Oliver GonzalezP·17y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Michael KopechP·28y·R/R

+$0.6M+$0.6M± $11M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.4± 1 exp WARrealized 0.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.27/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 2.0 seasons

Talent

0.22/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

STLSTL John Mozeliak net +$12.8M net -2.6

received +$11.2M+$11.2M ± $17M expected surplus · +$2.4M realized received 1.9 ± 2 expected · 0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 2024 odds 11% → 11% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tommy PhamOF·36y·R/R

+$8.2M+$8.2M± $11M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.3± 1 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.8/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

1.29/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Erick FeddeP·31y·R/R

+$3.4M+$3.4M± $12M exp surplusrealized +$4.0M 0.6± 2 exp WARrealized 0.9

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.39/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.38/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.79 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.