RRosternomics
𝕏

Cardinals STL

‹ ›

President of baseball ops: John Mozeliak · GM: Mike Girsch

Overview

REBUILD ↗ rising
cheap & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.78× league · TAB -0.8
-0.8TAB — talent above budget22nd/30
-0.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)19th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars17th/30
-4.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag8th/30
28%dead money %14th/30
0.481win %20th/30
30.4roster fWAR21st/30
+2surplus $M (value vs cost)11th/30
$121Mpayroll $M19th/30

Roster

CFVictor Scott II 136GNathan Church 18GMichael Siani 17G
LFLars Nootbaar 107GAlec Burleson 41GGarrett Hampson 20G
RFJordan Walker 108GAlec Burleson 34GLars Nootbaar 23G
SSMasyn Winn 129GThomas Saggese 33GGarrett Hampson 7G
2BBrendan Donovan 100GThomas Saggese 35GNolan Gorman 28G
3BNolan Arenado 102GNolan Gorman 54GThomas Saggese 18G
1BWillson Contreras 120GAlec Burleson 50GNolan Gorman 7G
STARTERSSonny Gray 3.6WARMatthew Liberatore 1.8WARMichael McGreevy 0.9WARAndre Pallante 0.7WARMiles Mikolas 0.3WAR
CPedro Pagés 110GYohel Pozo 46GJimmy Crooks 14G
DHIván Herrera 89GAlec Burleson 22GNolan Gorman 22G
BULLPEN★ Riley O'Brien 6svJoJo Romero 24hKyle Leahy 18hJorge Alcala 5hMatt Svanson 5hRyan Fernandez 4hJohn King 3hGordon Graceffo 0h
CPedro Pagés 110 · Yohel Pozo 46 · Jimmy Crooks 14
1BWillson Contreras 120 · Alec Burleson 50 · Nolan Gorman 7
2BBrendan Donovan 100 · Thomas Saggese 35 · Nolan Gorman 28
3BNolan Arenado 102 · Nolan Gorman 54 · Thomas Saggese 18
SSMasyn Winn 129 · Thomas Saggese 33 · Garrett Hampson 7
LFLars Nootbaar 107 · Alec Burleson 41 · Garrett Hampson 20
CFVictor Scott II 136 · Nathan Church 18 · Michael Siani 17
RFJordan Walker 108 · Alec Burleson 34 · Lars Nootbaar 23
DHIván Herrera 89 · Alec Burleson 22 · Nolan Gorman 22
SPSonny Gray 3.6 · Matthew Liberatore 1.8 · Michael McGreevy 0.9 · Andre Pallante 0.7 · Miles Mikolas 0.3
BP★ Riley O'Brien 6 · JoJo Romero 24 · Kyle Leahy 18 · Jorge Alcala 5 · Matt Svanson 5 · Ryan Fernandez 4 · John King 3 · Gordon Graceffo 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2025 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Sonny Gray 35 FA-elig 323.6 25.0 -10.9
Masyn Winn 23 pre-arb 1293.5 0.8 +13.1
Brendan Donovan 28 arb 1182.9 2.9 +8.5
Willson Contreras 33 FA-elig 1352.8 18.0 -7.0
Iván Herrera 25 pre-arb 1072.7 0.8 +9.8
Alec Burleson 26 pre-arb 1392.1 0.8 +7.5
Matthew Liberatore 25 pre-arb 291.8 0.8 +6.3
Victor Scott II 24 – 1381.7 0.8 +6.1
Pedro Pagés 26 pre-arb 1121.6 0.8 +5.5
Kyle Leahy 28 pre-arb 621.4 0.8 +4.7
Steven Matz↔ BOS 34 – 321.2 5.1 -0.4
Matt Svanson 26 – 391.0 0.5 +3.4
Phil Maton↔ TEX 32 – 401.0 0.9 +3.0
Michael McGreevy 24 pre-arb 170.9 0.4 +3.2
JoJo Romero 28 arb 650.9 2.3 +1.2
Nolan Arenado 34 FA-elig 1070.9 21.0 -17.6
Lars Nootbaar 27 arb 1350.8 3.0 +0.3
Andre Pallante 26 pre-arb 310.7 2.1 +0.8
José Fermín 26 pre-arb 300.6 0.4 +2.0
Thomas Saggese 23 pre-arb 820.5 0.5 +1.5
Gordon Graceffo 25 pre-arb 260.5 0.4 +1.5
Ryan Helsley↔ NYM 30 – 360.4 3.4 -1.7
Riley O'Brien 30 pre-arb 420.3 0.6 +0.7
Miles Mikolas 36 FA-elig 310.3 17.7 -16.5
Yohel Pozo 28 pre-arb 670.2 0.7 +0.2
Nathan Church 24 – 270.2 0.2 +0.5
Anthony Veneziano↔ MIA 27 pre-arb 20.1 0.0 +0.2
Nick Raquet 29 – 20.0 0.0 +0.1
Luken Baker 28 – 190.0 0.2 -0.1
Andre Granillo 25 – 140.0 0.2 -0.2
Erick Fedde↔ ATL 32 – 200.0 4.4 -4.4
Michael Siani 25 – 19-0.1 – –
Chris Roycroft 28 pre-arb 20-0.1 0.4 -0.8
César Prieto 26 – 3-0.1 0.0 -0.6
Nolan Gorman 25 pre-arb 111-0.2 0.8 -1.5
Ryan Vilade↔ CIN 26 – 7-0.2 0.1 -0.8
Garrett Hampson↔ ARI 30 – 35-0.2 0.6 -1.4
Jorge Alcala↔ BOS 29 arb 15-0.2 0.1 -1.0
José Barrero 27 – 22-0.2 0.2 -1.2
Roddery Muñoz 25 pre-arb 9-0.3 0.2 -1.2
Ryan Fernandez 27 pre-arb 32-0.3 0.6 -1.8
Jimmy Crooks 23 – 15-0.4 – –
John King 30 arb 51-0.4 1.6 -3.3
Jordan Walker 23 pre-arb 111-1.3 0.8 -5.7

Key additions (new vs 2024)

PlayerfWAR
Matt Svanson1.0
Phil Maton1.0
Yohel Pozo0.2
Nathan Church0.2
Anthony Veneziano0.1
Nick Raquet0.0

Key subtractions (gone from 2024)

Player2024 fWAR
Kyle Gibson1.4
Lance Lynn1.3
Paul Goldschmidt1.2
Andrew Kittredge0.3
Shawn Armstrong0.2
Brandon Crawford0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2025 payroll
$120.7M
2026 guaranteed
$34.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2025, 2025–2031. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2025; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
Sonny Gray3511.061$25.0M$11.0M$30.0MMUTUALFREE AGENT
Nolan Arenado3411.155$21.0M$5.0M$6.0MFREE AGENT
Willson Contreras338.108$18.0M$18.0M$17.0M$20.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Miles Mikolas368.037$17.7MFREE AGENT
Steven Matz349.099$5.1MFREE AGENT
Phil Maton327.047$867kFREE AGENT
Garrett Hampson306.030$586kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
Erick Fedde325.099$4.4MFREE AGENT
Ryan Helsley305.105$3.4MFREE AGENT
Lars Nootbaar273.076$3.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brendan Donovan283.000$2.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
JoJo Romero284.045$2.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
John King303.145$1.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Barrero273.082$237kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Alcala294.165$149kARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Siani253.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (28)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
Andre Pallante262.145$2.1MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nolan Gorman252.114$783kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alec Burleson262.029$779kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matthew Liberatore251.144$776kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Masyn Winn231.045$771kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Walker231.044$771kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Iván Herrera251.034$770kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Pagés260.166$768kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Leahy280.140$767kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Victor Scott II241.000$764kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yohel Pozo280.036$715kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Riley O'Brien301.008$562kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Fernandez271.000$559kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Thomas Saggese230.020$545kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Svanson260.000$507kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gordon Graceffo250.004$411kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Fermín262.000$391kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael McGreevy240.014$381kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Roycroft280.083$355kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andre Granillo250.000$247kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luken Baker280.122$235kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roddery Muñoz250.087$234kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nathan Church240.000$176kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Vilade260.051$90kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
César Prieto260.000$45kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Raquet290.000$28kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Veneziano270.045$22kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jimmy Crooks23–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cardinals 2025; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.