RRosternomics
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Cardinals STL

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President of baseball ops: John Mozeliak · GM: Mike Girsch

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.13× league · TAB -3.0
-3.0TAB — talent above budget19th/30
-12.6WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)24th/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars10th/30
-6.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag22nd/30
22%dead money %8th/30
0.438win %25th/30
32.8roster fWAR15th/30
-45surplus $M (value vs cost)21st/30
$174Mpayroll $M13th/30

Roster

CFLars Nootbaar 73GDylan Carlson 50GTommy Edman 42G
LFTyler O'Neill 58GAlec Burleson 44GLars Nootbaar 24G
RFJordan Walker 93GLars Nootbaar 34GDylan Carlson 20G
SSTommy Edman 48GMasyn Winn 37GTaylor Motter 3G
2BNolan Gorman 75GTommy Edman 51GBrendan Donovan 34G
3BNolan Arenado 128GNolan Gorman 18GTaylor Motter 12G
1BPaul Goldschmidt 133GAlec Burleson 17GBrendan Donovan 14G
STARTERSMiles Mikolas 3.0WARSteven Matz 2.0WARZack Thompson 1.1WARMatthew Liberatore 0.8WARDakota Hudson 0.3WAR
CWillson Contreras 97GAndrew Knizner 68GIván Herrera 13G
DHWillson Contreras 30GNolan Gorman 27GAlec Burleson 24G
BULLPEN★ Ryan Helsley 14svGiovanny Gallegos 20hAndre Pallante 14hDrew VerHagen 14hJohn King 12hCasey Lawrence 4hJoJo Romero 3hJacob Barnes 0h
CWillson Contreras 97 · Andrew Knizner 68 · Iván Herrera 13
1BPaul Goldschmidt 133 · Alec Burleson 17 · Brendan Donovan 14
2BNolan Gorman 75 · Tommy Edman 51 · Brendan Donovan 34
3BNolan Arenado 128 · Nolan Gorman 18 · Taylor Motter 12
SSTommy Edman 48 · Masyn Winn 37 · Taylor Motter 3
LFTyler O'Neill 58 · Alec Burleson 44 · Lars Nootbaar 24
CFLars Nootbaar 73 · Dylan Carlson 50 · Tommy Edman 42
RFJordan Walker 93 · Lars Nootbaar 34 · Dylan Carlson 20
DHWillson Contreras 30 · Nolan Gorman 27 · Alec Burleson 24
SPMiles Mikolas 3.0 · Steven Matz 2.0 · Zack Thompson 1.1 · Matthew Liberatore 0.8 · Dakota Hudson 0.3
BP★ Ryan Helsley 14 · Giovanny Gallegos 20 · Andre Pallante 14 · Drew VerHagen 14 · John King 12 · Casey Lawrence 4 · JoJo Romero 3 · Jacob Barnes 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2023 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Paul Goldschmidt 35 FA-elig 1543.4 26.0 -12.4
Lars Nootbaar 25 pre-arb 1173.1 0.7 +11.7
Miles Mikolas 34 FA-elig 353.0 18.8 -6.8
Willson Contreras 31 FA-elig 1252.8 10.0 +1.0
Nolan Arenado 32 FA-elig 1442.8 35.0 -24.1
Jordan Montgomery↔ TEX 30 FA-elig 212.6 6.6 +3.7
Tommy Edman 28 arb 1372.4 4.2 +5.3
Nolan Gorman 23 pre-arb 1192.3 0.7 +8.5
Steven Matz 32 FA-elig 252.0 10.5 -2.7
Jack Flaherty↔ BAL 27 FA-elig 201.6 3.7 +2.6
Brendan Donovan 26 pre-arb 951.5 0.7 +5.3
Paul DeJong↔ SFG 29 FA-elig 811.5 6.6 -0.7
Ryan Helsley 28 arb 331.5 2.1 +3.8
JoJo Romero 26 pre-arb 271.2 0.4 +4.3
Zack Thompson 25 pre-arb 251.1 0.7 +3.5
Jordan Walker 21 – 1171.0 0.6 +3.5
Chris Stratton↔ TEX 32 FA-elig 421.0 1.8 +2.2
Jordan Hicks↔ TOR 26 arb 400.9 1.1 +2.3
Matthew Liberatore 23 pre-arb 220.8 0.4 +2.6
Tyler O'Neill 28 arb 720.7 5.0 -2.3
Richie Palacios 26 – 320.4 – –
Iván Herrera 23 pre-arb 130.3 0.1 +1.0
Giovanny Gallegos 31 FA-elig 560.3 4.8 -3.6
Dakota Hudson 28 arb 180.3 2.6 -1.5
John King↔ TEX 28 pre-arb 200.1 0.1 +0.4
Jacob Barnes 33 arb 130.1 0.2 +0.2
Packy Naughton 27 pre-arb 40.1 0.7 -0.4
Dylan Carlson 24 arb 760.1 0.7 -0.4
Guillo Zuñiga 24 – 20.1 0.2 +0.1
Óscar Mercado 28 – 200.0 0.2 -0.0
José Fermín 24 – 210.0 0.3 -0.1
Andrew Knizner 28 arb 700.0 1.1 -1.0
James Naile 30 pre-arb 10-0.0 0.2 -0.3
Drew Rom 23 – 8-0.1 0.2 -0.5
Juniel Querecuto 30 pre-arb 9-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Andre Pallante 24 pre-arb 62-0.1 0.7 -1.1
Tres Barrera 28 pre-arb 6-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Michael Siani↔ CIN 23 – 5-0.1 – –
Génesis Cabrera↔ TOR 26 arb 32-0.1 0.5 -1.1
Ryan Tepera↔ ANA 35 FA-elig 2-0.2 1.2 -1.8
Drew VerHagen 32 FA-elig 60-0.2 3.0 -3.8
Kyle Leahy 26 – 3-0.2 0.1 -1.0
Irving Lopez 28 – 5-0.3 0.0 -1.2
Taylor Motter 33 FA-elig 29-0.3 0.8 -2.1
Luken Baker 26 – 33-0.4 0.3 -1.8
Andrew Suárez 30 pre-arb 13-0.4 0.3 -1.7
Casey Lawrence 35 pre-arb 15-0.4 0.2 -1.9
Adam Wainwright 41 FA-elig 23-0.4 17.5 -19.2
Juan Yepez 25 pre-arb 28-0.5 0.2 -2.3
Jake Woodford 26 arb 15-0.6 0.7 -3.2
Alec Burleson 24 pre-arb 107-0.7 0.7 -3.4
Masyn Winn 21 – 37-0.8 0.2 -3.4

Key additions (new vs 2022)

PlayerfWAR
Willson Contreras2.8
Jordan Walker1.0
Richie Palacios0.4
John King0.1
Jacob Barnes0.1
Guillo Zuñiga0.1

Key subtractions (gone from 2022)

Player2022 fWAR
Albert Pujols1.9
Jose Quintana1.8
Harrison Bader1.4
Corey Dickerson0.6
Yadier Molina0.1
Johan Oviedo0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2023 payroll
$173.7M
2024 guaranteed
$42.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2023, 2023–2029. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2023; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Nolan Arenado329.155$35.0MOPT-OUT$24.0M$21.0M$5.0M$6.0MFREE AGENT
Paul Goldschmidt3511.059$26.0MFREE AGENT
Miles Mikolas346.037$18.8MFREE AGENT
Adam Wainwright4117.027$17.5MFREE AGENT
Steven Matz327.099$10.5MFREE AGENT
Willson Contreras316.108$10.0M$18.0M$18.0M$18.0M$17.0M$20.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Paul DeJong296.000$6.6MFREE AGENT
Ryan Tepera358.000$1.2MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Jordan Montgomery305.153$6.6MFREE AGENT
Tyler O'Neill284.059$5.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Giovanny Gallegos314.085$4.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy Edman283.114$4.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jack Flaherty275.006$3.7MFREE AGENT
Drew VerHagen324.066$3.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Dakota Hudson284.062$2.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Helsley283.105$2.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Stratton325.100$1.8MFREE AGENT
Jordan Hicks265.000$1.1MFREE AGENT
Andrew Knizner283.021$1.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Génesis Cabrera263.011$498kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Óscar Mercado283.114$182kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacob Barnes335.071$155kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (30)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Taylor Motter331.113$775kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dylan Carlson242.104$742kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Woodford262.052$740kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lars Nootbaar251.076$732kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Packy Naughton271.003$729kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andre Pallante241.000$729kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brendan Donovan260.164$729kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nolan Gorman230.139$727kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zack Thompson250.100$725kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alec Burleson240.029$721kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Walker210.000$577kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matthew Liberatore230.028$445kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
JoJo Romero262.101$434kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luken Baker260.000$302kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Fermín240.000$263kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Suárez301.123$252kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Yepez250.127$236kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey Lawrence351.016$182kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Masyn Winn210.000$170kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Guillo Zuñiga240.000$166kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Rom230.000$159kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
James Naile300.054$155kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John King282.026$135kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Iván Herrera230.029$120kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tres Barrera281.000$112kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juniel Querecuto300.011$70kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Leahy260.000$62kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Irving Lopez28–$35k
Michael Siani231.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Richie Palacios261.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cardinals 2023; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.