CHC⇄SEA

CHCCHC Jed Hoyer net +$2.4M net +0.5

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $12M expected surplus · +$2.4M realized received 0.2 ± 2 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2024 odds 20% → 22% (+2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tyson MillerP·28y·R/R

−$3.4M−$3.4M± $12M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

#134 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.3/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.06/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.55 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Jerry Dipoto net −$2.4M net -0.5

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $19M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.0 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2024 odds 34% → 31% (-2.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jake SlaughterSS·27y·R/R

+$0.7M+$0.7M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.0± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#548 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.76 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.