MIA⇄SEA

MIAMIA Peter Bendix net +$0.8M net +0.1

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2024 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Will SchombergP·23y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Jerry Dipoto net −$0.8M net -0.1

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $8M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.3 ± 1 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2024 odds 32% → 31% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

J. T. ChargoisP·33y·B/R

+$0.2M+$0.2M± $8M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.3± 1 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

0.24/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.60 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.