SEA⇄MIL

SEASEA Jerry Dipoto net +$0.8M net +0.1

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2024 odds 31% → 31% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

MILMIL Matt Arnold net −$0.8M net -0.1

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $9M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.8 ± 1 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2024 odds 45% → 44% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dallas KeuchelP·36y·L/L

+$3.9M+$3.9M± $9M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.8± 1 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.74/yr blended

Horizon

1.1 control yr × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.