SDP⇄BOS

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $22M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 1.4 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Dennis TankersleyP·21y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

#1135 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Cesar Saba

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $4M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Dan Duquette net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$0.0M−$0.8M ± $10M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.5 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Ed Sprague3B·32y·R/R

−$0.2M−$0.9M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.5± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.23/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

0.39/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.85 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.