PHI⇄SDP

PHIPHI Ed Wade net +$4.0M net +0.7

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $21M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 2000 odds 1% → 1% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

David NewhanOF·26y·L/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

#456 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.6/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

-0.22/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net −$4.0M net -0.7

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $26M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2000 odds 2% → 2% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Desi RelafordSS·26y·B/R

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $26M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.8/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

-0.26/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.