RRosternomics
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Phillies PHI

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President of baseball ops: Dave Dombrowski · GM: Sam Fuld

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 1.48× league · TAB +6.8
+6.8TAB — talent above budget8th/30
+2.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)15th/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars4th/30
-2.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag3rd/30
7%dead money %1st/30
0.556win %6th/30
45.8roster fWAR5th/30
-45surplus $M (value vs cost)22nd/30
$227Mpayroll $M4th/30

2023: made playoffs · 90–72. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFBrandon Marsh 108GJohan Rojas 57GCristian Pache 19G
LFKyle Schwarber 103GJake Cave 35GBrandon Marsh 29G
RFNick Castellanos 148GJake Cave 11GBrandon Marsh 7G
SSTrea Turner 153GEdmundo Sosa 18GKody Clemens 1G
2BBryson Stott 149GRodolfo Castro 45GJosh Harrison 11G
3BAlec Bohm 90GEdmundo Sosa 82GRodolfo Castro 17G
1BAlec Bohm 80GKody Clemens 39GBryce Harper 36G
STARTERSZack Wheeler 5.9WARAaron Nola 3.8WARRanger Suarez 2.4WARTaijuan Walker 2.4WARMatt Strahm 2.0WAR
CJ.T. Realmuto 133GGarrett Stubbs 40G
DHBryce Harper 89GKyle Schwarber 57GNick Castellanos 8G
BULLPEN★ Craig Kimbrel 23svGregory Soto 24hSeranthony Domínguez 14hJeff Hoffman 11hJosé Alvarado 11hYunior Marte 2hAndrew Bellatti 2hDylan Covey 1h
CJ.T. Realmuto 133 · Garrett Stubbs 40
1BAlec Bohm 80 · Kody Clemens 39 · Bryce Harper 36
2BBryson Stott 149 · Rodolfo Castro 45 · Josh Harrison 11
3BAlec Bohm 90 · Edmundo Sosa 82 · Rodolfo Castro 17
SSTrea Turner 153 · Edmundo Sosa 18 · Kody Clemens 1
LFKyle Schwarber 103 · Jake Cave 35 · Brandon Marsh 29
CFBrandon Marsh 108 · Johan Rojas 57 · Cristian Pache 19
RFNick Castellanos 148 · Jake Cave 11 · Brandon Marsh 7
DHBryce Harper 89 · Kyle Schwarber 57 · Nick Castellanos 8
SPZack Wheeler 5.9 · Aaron Nola 3.8 · Ranger Suarez 2.4 · Taijuan Walker 2.4 · Matt Strahm 2.0
BP★ Craig Kimbrel 23 · Gregory Soto 24 · Seranthony Domínguez 14 · Jeff Hoffman 11 · José Alvarado 11 · Yunior Marte 2 · Andrew Bellatti 2 · Dylan Covey 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2023 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Zack Wheeler 33 FA-elig 325.9 24.5 -1.1
Trea Turner 30 FA-elig 1554.1 27.3 -10.9
Bryson Stott 25 pre-arb 1514.1 0.7 +15.5
Aaron Nola 30 FA-elig 323.8 16.0 -0.8
Brandon Marsh 25 pre-arb 1333.5 0.7 +13.3
Bryce Harper 30 FA-elig 1263.5 27.5 -13.8
Taijuan Walker 30 FA-elig 312.4 18.0 -8.4
Ranger Suarez 27 arb 222.4 3.0 +6.5
J.T. Realmuto 32 FA-elig 1352.0 23.9 -15.8
Matt Strahm 31 FA-elig 562.0 7.5 +0.3
Cristopher Sánchez 26 pre-arb 191.8 0.7 +6.4
Jeff Hoffman 30 arb 541.5 1.6 +4.4
Johan Rojas 22 – 591.4 0.3 +5.2
Alec Bohm 26 arb 1451.4 0.7 +4.7
José Alvarado 28 FA-elig 421.3 3.5 +1.7
Nick Castellanos 31 FA-elig 1571.3 20.0 -14.8
Craig Kimbrel 35 FA-elig 711.1 10.0 -5.6
Edmundo Sosa 27 arb 1041.0 0.9 +3.2
Gregory Soto 28 arb 690.9 3.9 -0.3
Kyle Schwarber 30 FA-elig 1600.9 20.0 -16.5
Bailey Falter↔ PIT 26 pre-arb 80.5 0.3 +1.7
Cristian Pache 24 pre-arb 480.5 0.7 +1.1
Andrew Vasquez↔ DET 29 arb 300.2 0.5 +0.3
Luis Ortiz 27 pre-arb 140.2 0.2 +0.6
Dylan Covey↔ LAD 31 arb 280.2 0.5 +0.3
Yunior Marte 28 pre-arb 400.2 0.7 -0.1
Drew Ellis 27 pre-arb 120.1 0.1 +0.5
Weston Wilson 28 – 80.1 0.1 +0.4
Orion Kerkering 22 – 30.1 0.0 +0.4
Dalton Guthrie 27 pre-arb 230.1 0.7 -0.4
Andrew Bellatti 31 FA-elig 270.1 0.9 -0.6
Seranthony Domínguez 28 arb 570.1 2.5 -2.3
Michael Lorenzen↔ DET 31 FA-elig 11-0.0 3.2 -3.2
Kody Clemens 27 pre-arb 49-0.0 0.3 -0.3
Erich Uelmen 27 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Nick Nelson 27 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.1 -0.3
Connor Brogdon 28 arb 27-0.1 0.7 -1.2
McKinley Moore 24 – 3-0.1 0.0 -0.6
Jake Cave 30 arb 65-0.1 0.9 -1.5
Michael Plassmeyer 26 pre-arb 1-0.2 0.0 -1.0
Garrett Stubbs 30 arb 41-0.3 0.7 -2.0
Rodolfo Castro↔ PIT 24 pre-arb 14-0.5 0.1 -2.1
Josh Harrison 35 FA-elig 41-0.7 2.0 -4.6
Darick Hall 27 pre-arb 18-0.7 0.7 -3.4

Key additions (new vs 2022)

PlayerfWAR
Trea Turner4.1
Taijuan Walker2.4
Matt Strahm2.0
Jeff Hoffman1.5
Johan Rojas1.4
Craig Kimbrel1.1

Key subtractions (gone from 2022)

Player2022 fWAR
Jean Segura2.1
Kyle Gibson1.8
Zach Eflin1.4
Noah Syndergaard1.1
Nick Maton0.6
Odúbel Herrera0.5

Current & Historical Payroll

2023 payroll
$227.1M
2024 guaranteed
$59.9M

What the front office was committed to as of 2023, 2023–2029. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2023; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Bryce Harper3010.159$27.5M$27.5M$27.5M$27.5M$27.5M$27.5M$23.5M
Trea Turner306.135$27.3M$27.3M$27.3M$27.3M$27.3M$27.3M$27.3M
Zack Wheeler339.098$24.5MFREE AGENT
J.T. Realmuto328.038$23.9MFREE AGENT
Kyle Schwarber307.086$20.0MFREE AGENT
Nick Castellanos319.029$20.0MFREE AGENT
Taijuan Walker308.142$18.0MFREE AGENT
Aaron Nola307.076$16.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Craig Kimbrel3511.161$10.0MFREE AGENT
Matt Strahm316.064$7.5MFREE AGENT
José Alvarado285.082$3.5M$5.1M$4.7M$9.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Michael Lorenzen317.159$3.2MFREE AGENT
Josh Harrison3512.000$2.0MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Gregory Soto283.102$3.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ranger Suarez273.112$3.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Seranthony Domínguez284.131$2.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Hoffman304.105$1.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Cave303.137$950kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dylan Covey313.002$490kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Ortiz275.000$163kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (24)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Edmundo Sosa272.140$950kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Bellatti311.083$859kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alec Bohm262.106$748kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Garrett Stubbs302.120$741kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Connor Brogdon282.067$739kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Marsh251.078$734kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryson Stott250.171$734kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yunior Marte280.091$726kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cristopher Sánchez260.120$725kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Darick Hall270.061$724kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dalton Guthrie270.032$722kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cristian Pache241.031$720kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Vasquez290.139$517kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Johan Rojas220.000$345kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kody Clemens270.120$333kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bailey Falter261.032$326kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Nelson272.049$144kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rodolfo Castro240.127$110kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Weston Wilson280.000$74kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Ellis270.054$66kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
McKinley Moore240.000$46kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Orion Kerkering220.000$35kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Erich Uelmen270.081$23kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Plassmeyer260.003$4kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Phillies 2023; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.