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November 14, 2023

PHI⇄MIL

unsettledToo soon to call — players still accruing.
PHIPHI Dave Dombrowski net +$1.6M net +0.2
received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $32M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 2.6 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 2024 odds 81% → 81% (-0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Hendry MendezOF·20y·L/L
+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0
Prior
no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent
0.21/yr blended
Horizon
6.0 control yrs
Robert Moore2B·22y·S/R
+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0
Prior
#72 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent
0.21/yr blended
Horizon
6.0 control yrs
MILMIL Matt Arnold net −$1.6M net -0.2
received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $20M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.1 ± 2 expected · -0.2 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2024 odds 44% → 44% (+0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Oliver Dunn3B·26y·L/R
+$1.3M+$1.3M± $20M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized -0.2
Prior
#345 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent
0.21/yr blended
Horizon
5.5 control yrs × 0.96 age decline
Fan verdict — who overpaid?

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.

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Decision-maker records extend to 1933; resource-controlled WAR and payroll metrics cover 1985–2026. Data sources include FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, the Chadwick Bureau register, the Lahman Database, prospect rankings from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and FanGraphs, and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0).
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