PIT⇄PHI

PITPIT Ben Cherington net +$17.6M net +2.6

received +$13.6M+$13.6M ± $25M expected surplus · +$14.4M realized received 2.2 ± 3 expected · 2.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 2023 odds 2% → 2% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Bailey FalterP·26y·R/L

+$13.8M+$13.8M± $25M exp surplusrealized +$14.4M 2.2± 3 exp WARrealized 2.1

Prior

#144 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

0.44/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

PHIPHI Dave Dombrowski net −$17.6M net -2.6

received +$9.6M+$9.6M ± $56M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 3.4 ± 7 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 2023 odds 75% → 74% (-1.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Rodolfo Castro2B/SS·24y·B/R

+$9.8M+$9.8M± $56M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 3.4± 7 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.4/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

0.61/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.