RRosternomics
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Athletics OAK

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President of baseball ops: Billy Beane · GM: David Forst

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.56× league · TAB -8.0
-8.0TAB — talent above budget25th/30
-5.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)24th/30
4.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars24th/30
-8.3dead WAR — sub-replacement drag25th/30
76%dead money %29th/30
0.426win %24th/30
19.1roster fWAR28th/30
-9surplus $M (value vs cost)15th/30
$71Mpayroll $M28th/30

Roster

CFJake Smolinski 49GCoco Crisp 36GBrett Eibner 19G
LFKhris Davis 93GJake Smolinski 18GBrett Eibner 13G
RFDanny Valencia 37GJake Smolinski 29GBrett Eibner 28G
SSMarcus Semien 159GChad Pinder 7GJed Lowrie 2G
2BJed Lowrie 82GTyler Ladendorf 30GJoey Wendle 28G
3BRyon Healy 72GDanny Valencia 68GYonder Alonso 7G
1BYonder Alonso 145GDanny Valencia 18GMark Canha 5G
STARTERSSean Manaea 2.0WARKendall Graveman 1.9WARAndrew Triggs 0.9WARSonny Gray 0.9WARJharel Cotton 0.7WAR
CStephen Vogt 113GBruce Maxwell 29GJosh Phegley 25G
DHKhris Davis 53GStephen Vogt 23GRenato Núñez 6G
BULLPEN★ Ryan Madson 30svRyan Dull 15hJohn Axford 15hLiam Hendriks 10hSean Doolittle 10hFernando Rodriguez Jr. 5hDanny Coulombe 2hChris Smith 0h
CStephen Vogt 113 · Bruce Maxwell 29 · Josh Phegley 25
1BYonder Alonso 145 · Danny Valencia 18 · Mark Canha 5
2BJed Lowrie 82 · Tyler Ladendorf 30 · Joey Wendle 28
3BRyon Healy 72 · Danny Valencia 68 · Yonder Alonso 7
SSMarcus Semien 159 · Chad Pinder 7 · Jed Lowrie 2
LFKhris Davis 93 · Jake Smolinski 18 · Brett Eibner 13
CFJake Smolinski 49 · Coco Crisp 36 · Brett Eibner 19
RFDanny Valencia 37 · Jake Smolinski 29 · Brett Eibner 28
DHKhris Davis 53 · Stephen Vogt 23 · Renato Núñez 6
SPSean Manaea 2.0 · Kendall Graveman 1.9 · Andrew Triggs 0.9 · Sonny Gray 0.9 · Jharel Cotton 0.7
BP★ Ryan Madson 30 · Ryan Dull 15 · John Axford 15 · Liam Hendriks 10 · Sean Doolittle 10 · Fernando Rodriguez Jr. 5 · Danny Coulombe 2 · Chris Smith 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2016 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Rich Hill↔ LAD 36 FA-elig 142.7 4.2 +4.5
Marcus Semien 25 arb 1592.7 0.5 +8.2
Khris Davis 28 arb 1502.6 0.5 +7.8
Ryon Healy 24 – 722.3 0.2 +7.2
Sean Manaea 24 – 252.0 0.4 +5.9
Kendall Graveman 25 pre-arb 311.9 0.5 +5.6
Josh Reddick↔ LAD 29 FA-elig 681.8 3.9 +2.0
Danny Valencia 31 FA-elig 1301.7 3.1 +2.3
Liam Hendriks 27 arb 531.4 0.5 +3.9
Ryan Dull 26 pre-arb 701.2 0.5 +3.3
Andrew Triggs 27 – 240.9 0.3 +2.6
Sonny Gray 26 arb 220.9 0.5 +2.3
Jharel Cotton 24 – 50.7 0.1 +2.2
Daniel Mengden 23 – 140.7 0.2 +2.0
Sean Doolittle 29 arb 440.6 1.6 +0.4
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. 32 FA-elig 340.4 1.1 +0.4
Ryan Madson 35 FA-elig 630.4 6.7 -5.2
Ross Detwiler↔ CLE 30 FA-elig 90.4 0.6 +0.8
John Axford 33 FA-elig 680.3 4.5 -3.4
Marc Rzepczynski↔ WSN 30 FA-elig 560.3 2.4 -1.4
Danny Coulombe 26 pre-arb 350.3 0.5 +0.5
Stephen Vogt 31 arb 1370.3 0.5 +0.4
Zach Neal 27 – 240.2 0.3 +0.5
Joey Wendle 26 – 280.2 0.1 +0.6
Bruce Maxwell 25 – 330.2 0.2 +0.4
Chris Smith 35 pre-arb 130.2 0.2 +0.4
Coco Crisp↔ CLE 36 FA-elig 1020.1 9.2 -8.8
Josh Phegley 28 arb 260.1 0.5 -0.3
Patrick Schuster↔ PHI 25 – 50.0 0.0 +0.0
Jake Smolinski 27 pre-arb 99-0.0 0.4 -0.4
Chris Bassitt 27 pre-arb 5-0.0 0.5 -0.5
Yonder Alonso 29 FA-elig 156-0.0 2.6 -2.7
Andrew Lambo 27 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.3 -0.3
Matt Olson 22 – 11-0.1 0.1 -0.2
Max Muncy 25 pre-arb 51-0.1 0.3 -0.6
J.B. Wendelken 23 arb 8-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Jesse Hahn 26 pre-arb 9-0.1 0.2 -0.6
Arismendy Alcántara 24 pre-arb 16-0.2 0.2 -0.8
Chad Pinder 24 – 22-0.3 0.1 -1.1
Renato Núñez 22 – 9-0.4 0.1 -1.2
Brett Eibner↔ KCR 27 – 44-0.4 0.1 -1.3
Mark Canha 27 pre-arb 16-0.4 0.5 -1.8
Matt McBride 31 – 20-0.4 0.2 -1.5
Eric Surkamp 28 – 9-0.4 0.1 -1.5
Billy Butler↔ NYY 30 FA-elig 85-0.5 10.2 -11.8
Raúl Alcántara 23 – 5-0.6 0.1 -2.0
Tyler Ladendorf 28 pre-arb 45-0.6 0.4 -2.4
Billy Burns↔ KCR 26 pre-arb 73-0.7 0.4 -2.6
Dillon Overton 24 – 7-0.9 0.1 -2.9
Jed Lowrie 32 FA-elig 87-1.0 7.5 -10.8
Chris Coghlan↔ CHC 31 FA-elig 51-1.1 2.5 -6.1

Key additions (new vs 2015)

PlayerfWAR
Rich Hill2.7
Khris Davis2.6
Ryon Healy2.3
Sean Manaea2.0
Liam Hendriks1.4
Andrew Triggs0.9

Key subtractions (gone from 2015)

Player2015 fWAR
Jesse Chavez2.5
Scott Kazmir2.4
Ben Zobrist1.5
Drew Pomeranz1.4
Brett Lawrie0.9
Tyler Clippard0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2016 payroll
$70.7M
2017 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2016, 2016–2022. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2016; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Billy Butler308.120$10.2MFREE AGENT
Coco Crisp3614.000$9.2MFREE AGENT
Jed Lowrie327.111$7.5MFREE AGENT
Ryan Madson3510.155$6.7MFREE AGENT
Rich Hill366.127$4.2MFREE AGENT
Fernando Rodriguez Jr.327.000$1.1MFREE AGENT
Ross Detwiler306.002$562kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
John Axford335.170$4.5MFREE AGENT
Josh Reddick295.050$3.9MFREE AGENT
Danny Valencia314.118$3.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Yonder Alonso294.116$2.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Coghlan315.148$2.5MFREE AGENT
Marc Rzepczynski305.132$2.4MFREE AGENT
Sean Doolittle293.122$1.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.B. Wendelken233.124$139kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Surkamp283.023$100kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (35)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Stephen Vogt312.084$528kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sonny Gray262.061$528kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Khris Davis282.104$524kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Liam Hendriks272.038$523kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Phegley281.114$512kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marcus Semien251.118$512kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Canha271.000$512kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kendall Graveman251.014$512kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Bassitt270.127$510kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Coulombe260.048$507kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Dull260.034$507kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Manaea240.000$435kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Billy Burns261.020$386kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Smolinski271.052$377kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Ladendorf280.132$372kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Triggs270.000$333kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Neal27–$283k
Andrew Lambo271.079$273kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Max Muncy250.106$269kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryon Healy240.000$222kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Mengden230.000$208kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bruce Maxwell250.000$200kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt McBride31–$197k
Jesse Hahn261.086$172kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Smith350.022$158kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Arismendy Alcántara240.098$153kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Pinder240.000$130kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Eibner270.000$108kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Wendle260.000$94kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dillon Overton240.000$92kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Raúl Alcántara230.000$78kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jharel Cotton240.000$72kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Renato Núñez220.000$58kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Olson220.000$58kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Patrick Schuster25–$39k

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Athletics 2016; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.