KCR⇄OAK

KCRKCR Dayton Moore net +$0.8M net +0.1

received +$25.6M+$25.6M ± $43M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 4.8 ± 5 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 2016 odds 2% → 2% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Billy BurnsOF·26y·B/R

+$25.8M+$25.8M± $43M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 4.8± 5 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.0/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.97/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

OAKOAK Billy Beane net −$0.8M net -0.1

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $28M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 1.0 ± 4 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2016 odds 1% → 1% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brett EibnerOF·27y·R/R

+$0.7M+$0.7M± $28M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.0± 4 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

#54 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.82 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.