OAK⇄CLE

OAKOAK Billy Beane net +$14.4M net +0.0

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $9M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.1 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Colt HynesP·31y·L/L

−$1.7M−$1.7M± $9M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.1± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#956 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

0.11/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.33 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CLECLE Chris Antonetti net −$14.4M net +0.0

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $11M expected surplus · −$14.4M realized received 1.5 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Coco CrispOF·36y·B/R

−$4.2M−$4.2M± $11M exp surplusrealized −$14.4M 1.5± 1 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.1/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

1.35/yr blended

Horizon

1.1 control yr × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.