RRosternomics

Athletics OAK

GM: Billy Beane

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 11 in this regime · payroll 0.6× league · TAB +4.3
+4.3TAB — talent above budget10th/30
-0.2WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)16th/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars9th/30
-4.3dead WAR — sub-replacement drag12th/30
56%dead money %28th/30
0.463win %20th/30
32.2roster fWAR17th/30
+17surplus $M (value vs cost)4th/30
$55Mpayroll $M27th/30

Roster

CFRajai Davis 113GRyan Sweeney 57GScott Hairston 51G
LFScott Hairston 60GEric Patterson 26GAaron Cunningham 9G
RFRyan Sweeney 85GJack Cust 51GTravis Buck 28G
SSCliff Pennington 60GBobby Crosby 6G
2BMark Ellis 105GAdam Kennedy 50GGregorio Petit 8G
3BAdam Kennedy 82GBobby Crosby 42GEric Chavez 8G
1BBobby Crosby 54GDaric Barton 51GTommy Everidge 21G
STARTERSBrett Anderson 3.7WARDallas Braden 2.8WARGio Gonzalez 1.1WARJosh Outman 0.9WARÉdgar González 0.6WAR
CKurt Suzuki 135GLandon Powell 36G
DHJack Cust 96GJason Giambi 22GNomar Garciaparra 20G
BULLPEN Andrew Bailey 26svMichael Wuertz 23hCraig Breslow 15hBrad Ziegler 14hSantiago Casilla 5hJeff Gray 1hKevin Cameron 1hJerry Blevins 0h
CKurt Suzuki 135 · Landon Powell 36
1BBobby Crosby 54 · Daric Barton 51 · Tommy Everidge 21
2BMark Ellis 105 · Adam Kennedy 50 · Gregorio Petit 8
3BAdam Kennedy 82 · Bobby Crosby 42 · Eric Chavez 8
SSCliff Pennington 60 · Bobby Crosby 6
LFScott Hairston 60 · Eric Patterson 26 · Aaron Cunningham 9
CFRajai Davis 113 · Ryan Sweeney 57 · Scott Hairston 51
RFRyan Sweeney 85 · Jack Cust 51 · Travis Buck 28
DHJack Cust 96 · Jason Giambi 22 · Nomar Garciaparra 20
SPBrett Anderson 3.7 · Dallas Braden 2.8 · Gio Gonzalez 1.1 · Josh Outman 0.9 · Édgar González 0.6
BP Andrew Bailey 26 · Michael Wuertz 23 · Craig Breslow 15 · Brad Ziegler 14 · Santiago Casilla 5 · Jeff Gray 1 · Kevin Cameron 1 · Jerry Blevins 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2009 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Ryan Sweeney 24 arb 1343.8 0.4 +8.7
Brett Anderson 21 pre-arb 303.7 0.4 +8.3
Rajai Davis 28 arb 1253.5 0.4 +7.9
Matt Holliday↔ STL 29 arb 932.8 8.0 -1.3
Dallas Braden 25 pre-arb 222.8 0.4 +6.3
Michael Wuertz 30 arb 742.3 1.1 +4.5
Andrew Bailey 25 pre-arb 682.3 0.4 +5.2
Adam Kennedy 33 1291.5
Kurt Suzuki 25 pre-arb 1471.5 0.4 +3.1
Brad Ziegler 29 pre-arb 691.1 0.4 +2.2
Mark Ellis 32 FA-elig 1051.1 5.0 -2.4
Gio Gonzalez 23 pre-arb 201.1 0.4 +2.2
Josh Outman 24 pre-arb 140.9 0.4 +1.8
Daric Barton 23 pre-arb 540.8 0.4 +1.4
Craig Breslow↔ MIN 28 arb 600.7 0.3 +1.4
Jack Cust 30 FA-elig 1490.7 2.8 -1.2
Russ Springer↔ TBR 40 FA-elig 480.6 2.1 -0.7
Cliff Pennington 25 pre-arb 600.6 0.4 +1.1
Vin Mazzaro 22 170.6
Edgar Gonzalez 26 260.6
Landon Powell 27 pre-arb 460.5 0.4 +0.7
Trevor Cahill 21 pre-arb 320.4 0.4 +0.6
Brad Kilby 26 110.4
Eric Patterson 26 pre-arb 390.3 0.4 +0.4
Jerry Blevins 25 pre-arb 200.3 0.4 +0.3
Brett Tomko↔ NYY 36 60.3
Orlando Cabrera↔ MIN 34 FA-elig 1010.3 2.5 -1.9
Jack Hannahan↔ SEA 29 arb 520.2 0.2 +0.4
Jon Meloan 24 pre-arb 60.2 0.4 +0.1
Kevin Cameron 29 110.2
Dana Eveland 25 arb 130.1 0.4 -0.1
Jeff Gray 27 pre-arb 240.1 0.4 -0.1
Sean Gallagher↔ SDP 23 pre-arb 60.1 0.2 +0.1
Henry Alberto Rodriguez 22 pre-arb 30.0 0.4 -0.3
Matt Carson 27 100.0
Eric Munson 31 1-0.0
Travis Buck 25 pre-arb 36-0.0 0.4 -0.5
Jay Marshall 26 10-0.0
Nomar Garciaparra 35 FA-elig 65-0.1 1.0 -1.2
Chris Denorfia 28 4-0.1 0.4 -0.7
Chad Reineke 27 1-0.1
Santiago Casilla 28 arb 46-0.2 0.4 -0.8
Clayton Mortensen↔ STL 24 6-0.2
Jason Giambi↔ COL 38 FA-elig 83-0.3 4.1 -4.8
Dan Giese 32 7-0.3
Gregorio Petit 24 pre-arb 11-0.4 0.4 -1.3
Tommy Everidge 26 24-0.4
Eric Chavez 31 FA-elig 8-0.4 11.5 -12.5
Scott Hairston↔ SDP 29 arb 60-0.4 0.6 -1.7
Aaron Cunningham 23 pre-arb 23-0.6 0.4 -1.8
Bobby Crosby 29 FA-elig 97-0.6 5.3 -6.8

Key additions (new vs 2008)

PlayerfWAR
Brett Anderson3.7
Matt Holliday2.8
Michael Wuertz2.3
Andrew Bailey2.3
Adam Kennedy1.5
Craig Breslow0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 2008)

Player2008 fWAR
Rich Harden2.4
Justin Duchscherer2.4
Joe Blanton1.5
Joey Devine1.5
Greg Smith1.4
Huston Street1.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2009 payroll
$54.6M

What the front office was committed to as of 2009, 2009–2015. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Eric Chavez3111.000$11.5M$12.5MFREE AGENT
Bobby Crosby296.000$5.3MFREE AGENT
Mark Ellis327.000$5.0M$5.5M$3.2MFREE AGENT
Jason Giambi3814.000$4.1MFREE AGENT
Jack Cust308.000$2.8M$2.6MFREE AGENT
Orlando Cabrera3412.000$2.5MFREE AGENT
Russ Springer4017.000$2.1MFREE AGENT
Nomar Garciaparra3513.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Brett Tomko3612.000FREE AGENT
Adam Kennedy3310.000FREE AGENT
Eric Munson319.000FREE AGENT
Edgar Gonzalez266.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Matt Holliday295.000$8.0MFREE AGENT
Michael Wuertz305.000$1.1MFREE AGENT
Scott Hairston295.000$647kFREE AGENT
Santiago Casilla285.000$420kFREE AGENT
Chris Denorfia284.000$420kARB 3FREE AGENT
Rajai Davis283.000$410kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dana Eveland254.000$410kARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Sweeney243.000$410kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Craig Breslow284.000$329kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jack Hannahan293.000$207kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (29)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Kurt Suzuki252.000$410kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daric Barton232.000$410kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Buck252.000$410kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dallas Braden252.000$410kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Patterson262.000$405kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Ziegler291.000$405kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jerry Blevins252.000$405kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gio Gonzalez231.000$405kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gregorio Petit241.000$405kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Landon Powell270.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jon Meloan242.000$400kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cliff Pennington251.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Gray271.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Bailey250.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Anderson210.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Cunningham231.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Outman241.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Henry Alberto Rodriguez220.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Cahill210.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Gallagher232.000$176kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Giese32
Chad Reineke27
Kevin Cameron292.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy Everidge26
Matt Carson270.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jay Marshall262.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vin Mazzaro220.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Kilby26
Clayton Mortensen240.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Athletics 2009; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3