OAK⇄COL

OAKOAK Billy Beane net +$0.8M net +0.0

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $24M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Corey Wimberly2B·25y·S/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#177 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

COLCOL Daniel O'Dowd net −$0.8M net +0.0

received +$14.4M+$14.4M ± $23M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 2.9 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Matt MurtonOF·27y·R/R

+$14.6M+$14.6M± $23M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 2.9± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.24/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.8/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

0.98/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.