CHC⇄OAK

CHCCHC Jim Hendry net +$1.6M net +0.4

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $30M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 2.1 ± 4 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2010 odds 3% → 4% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Matthew SpencerLF·24y·L/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#113 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Ronny Morla

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $7M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Jeff GrayP·28y·R/R

−$0.6M−$0.6M± $17M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.6± 2 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#967 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.17/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.64 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

OAKOAK Billy Beane net −$1.6M net -0.4

received −$0.8M−$2.4M ± $25M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.6 ± 3 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2010 odds 15% → 14% (-1.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Aaron Miles2B·33y·B/R

+$0.0M−$1.7M± $10M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.4/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

-0.17/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Jake FoxOF·27y·R/R

−$0.6M−$0.6M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.6± 3 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

#73 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.0/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

0.13/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.85 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.