RRosternomics

Athletics OAK

GM: Billy Beane

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 12 in this regime · payroll 0.61× league · TAB +5.6
+5.6TAB — talent above budget8th/30
+5.6WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)10th/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars5th/30
-5.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag15th/30
43%dead money %23rd/30
0.500win %15th/30
33.6roster fWAR17th/30
+27surplus $M (value vs cost)6th/30
$55Mpayroll $M26th/30

Roster

CFRajai Davis 83GCoco Crisp 73GGabe Gross 10G
LFConor Jackson 52GRajai Davis 47GJeremy Hermida 47G
RFRyan Sweeney 80GGabe Gross 50GRajai Davis 27G
SSCliff Pennington 156GAdam Rosales 14GSteve Tolleson 11G
2BMark Ellis 116GAdam Rosales 47GSteve Tolleson 4G
3BKevin Kouzmanoff 142GAkinori Iwamura 10GSteve Tolleson 6G
1BDaric Barton 157GJeff Larish 11GAdam Rosales 7G
STARTERSDallas Braden 3.4WARGio Gonzalez 3.1WARBrett Anderson 2.5WARTrevor Cahill 1.9WARBen Sheets 0.8WAR
CKurt Suzuki 123GLandon Powell 38GJosh Donaldson 7G
DHJack Cust 90GEric Chavez 31GKurt Suzuki 7G
BULLPEN Andrew Bailey 25svBrad Ziegler 17hCraig Breslow 16hMichael Wuertz 12hJerry Blevins 11hHenry Alberto Rodriguez 3hBoof Bonser 3hTyson Ross 2h
CKurt Suzuki 123 · Landon Powell 38 · Josh Donaldson 7
1BDaric Barton 157 · Jeff Larish 11 · Adam Rosales 7
2BMark Ellis 116 · Adam Rosales 47 · Steve Tolleson 4
3BKevin Kouzmanoff 142 · Akinori Iwamura 10 · Steve Tolleson 6
SSCliff Pennington 156 · Adam Rosales 14 · Steve Tolleson 11
LFConor Jackson 52 · Rajai Davis 47 · Jeremy Hermida 47
CFRajai Davis 83 · Coco Crisp 73 · Gabe Gross 10
RFRyan Sweeney 80 · Gabe Gross 50 · Rajai Davis 27
DHJack Cust 90 · Eric Chavez 31 · Kurt Suzuki 7
SPDallas Braden 3.4 · Gio Gonzalez 3.1 · Brett Anderson 2.5 · Trevor Cahill 1.9 · Ben Sheets 0.8
BP Andrew Bailey 25 · Brad Ziegler 17 · Craig Breslow 16 · Michael Wuertz 12 · Jerry Blevins 11 · Henry Alberto Rodriguez 3 · Boof Bonser 3 · Tyson Ross 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2010 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Daric Barton 24 arb 1595.0 0.4 +11.3
Cliff Pennington 26 pre-arb 1563.6 0.4 +8.0
Dallas Braden 26 arb 303.4 0.4 +7.7
Coco Crisp 30 FA-elig 753.1 5.0 +2.4
Gio Gonzalez 24 pre-arb 333.1 0.4 +7.0
Mark Ellis 33 FA-elig 1243.1 5.5 +1.8
Brett Anderson 22 pre-arb 192.5 0.4 +5.5
Kevin Kouzmanoff 28 arb 1432.5 3.1 +2.8
Jack Cust 31 FA-elig 1122.2 2.6 +2.6
Trevor Cahill 22 pre-arb 301.9 0.4 +4.1
Adam Rosales 27 pre-arb 801.6 0.4 +3.4
Kurt Suzuki 26 arb 1311.2 0.4 +2.3
Rajai Davis 29 arb 1431.1 1.4 +1.3
Andrew Bailey 26 pre-arb 471.0 0.4 +2.0
Ryan Sweeney 25 arb 820.8 0.4 +1.5
Ben Sheets 31 FA-elig 200.8 10.0 -8.1
Craig Breslow 29 arb 750.5 0.4 +0.7
Conor Jackson↔ ARI 28 arb 180.5 0.9 +0.1
Henry Alberto Rodriguez 23 290.3
Boof Bonser↔ BOS 28 arb 130.2 0.6 -0.1
Justin Duchscherer 32 FA-elig 50.2 1.8 -1.4
Steve Tolleson 26 250.1
Clayton Mortensen 25 10.1
Brad Ziegler 30 pre-arb 640.1 0.4 -0.2
Jerry Blevins 26 arb 630.1 0.4 -0.2
Brad Kilby 27 50.0
Eric Sogard 24 40.0
Tyson Ross 23 pre-arb 260.0 0.4 -0.3
Justin James 28 5-0.0
Jeremy Hermida↔ BOS 26 arb 21-0.0 1.0 -1.0
Ross Wolf 27 11-0.0
Vin Mazzaro 23 24-0.0
Edwar Ramirez 29 arb 7-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Michael Wuertz 31 FA-elig 48-0.1 2.2 -2.4
Matt Watson 31 12-0.1
Bobby Cramer 30 4-0.1
Eric Patterson↔ BOS 27 arb 45-0.1 0.2 -0.4
Landon Powell 28 41-0.1
Cedrick Bowers 32 14-0.2
Matt Carson 28 36-0.2
Chad Gaudin↔ NYY 27 FA-elig 12-0.3 0.2 -0.9
Josh Donaldson 24 14-0.3 0.0 -0.8
Jeff Larish↔ DET 27 24-0.4
Travis Buck 26 arb 14-0.4 0.4 -1.5
Gabe Gross 30 FA-elig 105-0.5 0.8 -2.0
Akinori Iwamura↔ PIT 31 arb 10-0.5 0.8 -2.0
Jake Fox↔ BAL 27 arb 39-0.5 0.2 -1.5
Eric Chavez 32 FA-elig 33-0.7 12.5 -14.1
Chris Carter 23 24-0.8

Key additions (new vs 2009)

PlayerfWAR
Coco Crisp3.1
Kevin Kouzmanoff2.5
Adam Rosales1.6
Ben Sheets0.8
Conor Jackson0.5
Boof Bonser0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2009)

Player2009 fWAR
Matt Holliday2.8
Adam Kennedy1.5
Josh Outman0.9
Russ Springer0.6
Edgar Gonzalez0.6
Brett Tomko0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2010 payroll
$55.3M

What the front office was committed to as of 2010, 2010–2016. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2010201120122013201420152016
Eric Chavez3212.000$12.5MFREE AGENT
Ben Sheets319.000$10.0MFREE AGENT
Mark Ellis338.000$5.5M$3.2MFREE AGENT
Coco Crisp308.000$5.0M$5.8M$6.0M$7.0M$7.5M$11.0M$9.2M
Jack Cust319.000$2.6MFREE AGENT
Michael Wuertz316.000$2.2M$2.8MFREE AGENT
Justin Duchscherer329.000$1.8MFREE AGENT
Gabe Gross306.000$750kFREE AGENT
Chad Gaudin277.000$200kFREE AGENT
Josh Donaldson2410.158$42kFREE AGENT$480k$492k$500k

Arbitration-eligible (16)

PlayerAgeSvc2010201120122013201420152016
Kevin Kouzmanoff284.000$3.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Rajai Davis294.000$1.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Hermida265.000$962kFREE AGENT
Conor Jackson285.000$930kFREE AGENT
Akinori Iwamura313.000$758kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Boof Bonser284.000$563kARB 3FREE AGENT
Edwar Ramirez293.000$427kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Craig Breslow295.000$425kFREE AGENT
Ryan Sweeney254.000$420kARB 3FREE AGENT
Dallas Braden263.000$420kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kurt Suzuki263.000$420kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daric Barton243.000$410kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Buck263.000$410kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jerry Blevins263.000$405kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Fox273.000$205kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Patterson273.000$202kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (23)

PlayerAgeSvc2010201120122013201420152016
Andrew Bailey261.000$435kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Anderson221.000$410kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Cahill221.000$410kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Rosales272.000$410kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Ziegler302.000$410kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gio Gonzalez242.000$405kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cliff Pennington262.000$405kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyson Ross230.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cedrick Bowers32
Matt Watson31
Landon Powell281.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin James28
Ross Wolf27
Bobby Cramer300.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Carson280.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Larish272.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Henry Alberto Rodriguez231.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Carter230.016Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Tolleson260.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vin Mazzaro230.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Kilby27
Clayton Mortensen251.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Sogard240.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Athletics 2010; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3