OAK⇄TBR

OAKOAK Billy Beane net +$8.8M net +1.3

received +$6.4M+$4.0M ± $14M expected surplus · +$8.8M realized received 1.5 ± 2 expected · 1.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2009 odds 8% → 11% (+2.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Adam Kennedy2B·33y·L/R

+$6.0M+$3.6M± $14M exp surplusrealized +$8.8M 1.5± 2 exp WARrealized 1.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.24/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.5/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

1.04/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.93 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

TBRTBR Andrew Friedman net −$8.8M net -1.3

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $12M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.5 ± 2 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2009 odds 85% → 81% (-4.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Joe Dillon2B/OF·33y·R/R

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $12M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.5± 2 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

0.37/yr blended

Horizon

2.8 control yrs × 0.52 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.