RRosternomics

Brewers MIL

GM: Douglas Melvin

Overview

WINDOW → steady
cheap & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.83× league · TAB +5.2
+5.2TAB — talent above budget9th/30
-2.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)17th/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars7th/30
-2.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag4th/30
55%dead money %29th/30
0.475win %21st/30
37.1roster fWAR14th/30
+6surplus $M (value vs cost)9th/30
$76Mpayroll $M18th/30

Roster

CFCarlos Gómez 75GLorenzo Cain 38GChris Dickerson 20G
LFRyan Braun 153GJoe Inglett 10GJody Gerut 6G
RFCorey Hart 141GJoe Inglett 14GChris Dickerson 4G
SSAlcides Escobar 138GCraig Counsell 42GLuis Alfonso Cruz 5G
2BRickie Weeks Jr. 159GJoe Inglett 8GCraig Counsell 3G
3BCasey McGehee 153GCraig Counsell 20GMat Gamel 3G
1BPrince Fielder 160GCasey McGehee 3GGeorge Kottaras 2G
STARTERSYovani Gallardo 4.9WARChris Narveson 2.0WARRandy Wolf 1.4WARChris Capuano 0.2WARManny Parra 0.2WAR
CJonathan Lucroy 75GGeorge Kottaras 61GGregg Zaun 28G
DHCasey McGehee 3GRyan Braun 1GPrince Fielder 1G
BULLPEN John Axford 24svKameron Loe 22hZach Braddock 15hCarlos Villanueva 14hTodd Coffey 13hLaTroy Hawkins 6hTrevor Hoffman 2hDavid Riske 0h
CJonathan Lucroy 75 · George Kottaras 61 · Gregg Zaun 28
1BPrince Fielder 160 · Casey McGehee 3 · George Kottaras 2
2BRickie Weeks Jr. 159 · Joe Inglett 8 · Craig Counsell 3
3BCasey McGehee 153 · Craig Counsell 20 · Mat Gamel 3
SSAlcides Escobar 138 · Craig Counsell 42 · Luis Alfonso Cruz 5
LFRyan Braun 153 · Joe Inglett 10 · Jody Gerut 6
CFCarlos Gómez 75 · Lorenzo Cain 38 · Chris Dickerson 20
RFCorey Hart 141 · Joe Inglett 14 · Chris Dickerson 4
DHCasey McGehee 3 · Ryan Braun 1 · Prince Fielder 1
SPYovani Gallardo 4.9 · Chris Narveson 2.0 · Randy Wolf 1.4 · Chris Capuano 0.2 · Manny Parra 0.2
BP John Axford 24 · Kameron Loe 22 · Zach Braddock 15 · Carlos Villanueva 14 · Todd Coffey 13 · LaTroy Hawkins 6 · Trevor Hoffman 2 · David Riske 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2010 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Rickie Weeks Jr. 27 FA-elig 1606.0 2.8 +11.2
Yovani Gallardo 24 arb 334.9 0.5 +11.1
Ryan Braun 26 arb 1573.7 1.3 +7.5
Jonathan Lucroy 24 753.4 0.4 +7.6
Corey Hart 28 FA-elig 1453.0 4.8 +2.2
Casey McGehee 27 pre-arb 1572.8 0.4 +6.2
Prince Fielder 26 arb 1612.7 11.0 -4.8
Jim Edmonds↔ CIN 40 FA-elig 732.4 0.7 +4.9
Chris Narveson 28 arb 372.0 0.4 +4.3
John Axford 27 501.6 0.4 +3.4
Randy Wolf 33 FA-elig 361.4 8.8 -5.6
Gregg Zaun 39 FA-elig 281.3 1.9 +1.1
Lorenzo Cain 24 431.2
Zach Braddock 22 460.6
Joe Inglett 32 arb 1020.5 0.4 +0.9
Alcides Escobar 23 pre-arb 1450.4 0.4 +0.6
Craig Counsell 39 FA-elig 1020.4 2.1 -1.2
Carlos Gómez 24 arb 970.4 1.1 -0.2
Mark Rogers 24 40.3
Kameron Loe 28 530.2
Manny Parra 27 arb 420.2 0.4 +0.1
Mike McClendon 25 170.2
Chris Capuano 31 240.2
Carlos Villanueva 26 arb 500.1 0.9 -0.7
Chris Smith 29 30.1
Jeremy Jeffress 22 100.0 0.4 -0.3
David Riske 33 FA-elig 23-0.0 4.5 -4.5
Luis Alfonso Cruz 26 7-0.0
Todd Coffey 29 arb 69-0.0 2.0 -2.1
LaTroy Hawkins 37 FA-elig 18-0.0 3.2 -3.3
George Kottaras 27 pre-arb 67-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Mat Gamel 24 pre-arb 12-0.1 0.4 -0.7
Chris Dickerson↔ CIN 28 pre-arb 25-0.1 0.2 -0.5
Brandon Kintzler 25 7-0.1
Jody Gerut 32 FA-elig 32-0.1 2.0 -2.3
Jeff Suppan↔ STL 35 FA-elig 15-0.2 6.4 -6.7
Claudio Vargas 32 FA-elig 17-0.2 0.9 -1.3
Marco Estrada 26 7-0.2 0.0 -0.5
Mitch Stetter 29 arb 9-0.2 0.4 -1.0
Adam Stern 30 6-0.3
Doug Davis 34 FA-elig 8-0.3 4.2 -4.9
Dave Bush 30 FA-elig 40-0.3 4.2 -5.0
Trevor Hoffman 42 FA-elig 50-0.5 7.5 -8.8

Key additions (new vs 2009)

PlayerfWAR
Jonathan Lucroy3.4
Jim Edmonds2.4
Randy Wolf1.4
Gregg Zaun1.3
Lorenzo Cain1.2
Zach Braddock0.6

Key subtractions (gone from 2009)

Player2009 fWAR
Mike Cameron4.1
Felipe Lopez2.1
J.J. Hardy1.0
Mark DiFelice0.7
Mike Rivera0.6
Jason Kendall0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2010 payroll
$75.7M

What the front office was committed to as of 2010, 2010–2016. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2010201120122013201420152016
Randy Wolf3311.000$8.8M$9.5M$8.0MFREE AGENT
Trevor Hoffman4217.000$7.5MFREE AGENT
Jeff Suppan3515.000$6.4MFREE AGENT
Corey Hart286.000$4.8M$6.8M$9.0MFREE AGENT
David Riske3311.000$4.5MFREE AGENT
Doug Davis3411.000$4.2MFREE AGENT
Dave Bush306.000$4.2MFREE AGENT
LaTroy Hawkins3715.000$3.2M$4.2MFREE AGENT
Rickie Weeks Jr.277.000$2.8M$4.5M$10.0M$10.0M$11.0MFREE AGENT
Craig Counsell3915.000$2.1M$1.4MFREE AGENT
Jody Gerut327.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Gregg Zaun3915.000$1.9MFREE AGENT
Claudio Vargas327.000$900kFREE AGENT
Jim Edmonds4017.000$722kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2010201120122013201420152016
Prince Fielder265.000$11.0MFREE AGENT
Todd Coffey295.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Ryan Braun263.000$1.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Gómez243.000$1.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Villanueva264.000$950kARB 3FREE AGENT
Yovani Gallardo243.000$450kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Manny Parra273.000$440kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mitch Stetter293.000$420kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Inglett324.000$416kARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Narveson284.000$406kARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Capuano315.001FREE AGENT
Adam Stern305.000FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (17)

PlayerAgeSvc2010201120122013201420152016
Casey McGehee272.000$428kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
George Kottaras272.000$408kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mat Gamel242.000$406kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alcides Escobar232.000$406kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Axford270.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Lucroy240.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Jeffress220.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Dickerson282.000$231kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marco Estrada262.000$28kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kameron Loe282.133ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Smith290.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Kintzler250.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Rogers240.073Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lorenzo Cain240.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Alfonso Cruz262.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Braddock220.058Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike McClendon250.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Brewers 2010; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3