TOR⇄MIL

TORTOR Alex Anthopoulos net +$8.8M net +3.5

received +$12.0M+$12.0M ± $45M expected surplus · +$48.8M realized received 3.8 ± 6 expected · 7.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2011 odds 4% → 3% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brett Lawrie2B/3B·21y·R/R

+$11.9M+$11.9M± $45M exp surplusrealized +$48.8M 3.8± 6 exp WARrealized 7.7

Prior

Composite #40.0 prospect (Baseball America #40 (2011)) → 0.69/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.69/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

MILMIL Douglas Melvin net −$8.8M net -3.5

received +$32.8M+$32.8M ± $21M expected surplus · +$40.0M realized received 3.3 ± 3 expected · 4.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2011 odds 79% → 80% (+1.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Shaun MarcumP·29y·R/R

+$32.6M+$32.6M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$40.0M 3.3± 3 exp WARrealized 4.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.6/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

1.64/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.