MIL⇄TEX

MILMIL Douglas Melvin net +$4.0M net +0.4

received +$0.8M−$0.8M ± $11M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.1 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2010 odds 26% → 27% (+0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ray Olmedo2B/SS·29y·B/R

+$0.6M−$1.0M± $11M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.1± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.6/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.08/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

TEXTEX Jon Daniels net −$4.0M net -0.4

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $14M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2010 odds 50% → 49% (-0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Matt TreanorC·34y·R/R

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.8/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

-0.16/yr blended

Horizon

2.2 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.