RRosternomics

Brewers MIL

GM: Douglas Melvin

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.92× league · TAB -3.6
-3.6TAB — talent above budget20th/30
-0.8WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)18th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars18th/30
-4.7dead WAR — sub-replacement drag16th/30
52%dead money %24th/30
0.494win %17th/30
29.6roster fWAR20th/30
-11surplus $M (value vs cost)18th/30
$84Mpayroll $M14th/30

Roster

CFMike Cameron 147GJody Gerut 42GCorey Patterson 6G
LFRyan Braun 158GFrank Catalanotto 7GChris Duffy 3G
RFCorey Hart 112GJody Gerut 37GFrank Catalanotto 31G
SSJ.J. Hardy 112GAlcides Escobar 37GCraig Counsell 27G
2BFelipe López 144GCraig Counsell 50GRickie Weeks Jr. 35G
3BCasey McGehee 71GCraig Counsell 43GMat Gamel 27G
1BPrince Fielder 162GCasey McGehee 3G
STARTERSYovani Gallardo 3.1WARManny Parra 0.8WARCarlos Villanueva 0.5WARDave Bush 0.3WARMike Burns 0.0WAR
CJason Kendall 133GMike Rivera 34GCarlos Corporán 1G
DHMat Gamel 6GCasey McGehee 3G
BULLPEN Trevor Hoffman 37svTodd Coffey 28hDavid Weathers 21hMitch Stetter 20hClaudio Vargas 11hMark DiFelice 10hSeth McClung 5hChris Smith 0h
CJason Kendall 133 · Mike Rivera 34 · Carlos Corporán 1
1BPrince Fielder 162 · Casey McGehee 3
2BFelipe López 144 · Craig Counsell 50 · Rickie Weeks Jr. 35
3BCasey McGehee 71 · Craig Counsell 43 · Mat Gamel 27
SSJ.J. Hardy 112 · Alcides Escobar 37 · Craig Counsell 27
LFRyan Braun 158 · Frank Catalanotto 7 · Chris Duffy 3
CFMike Cameron 147 · Jody Gerut 42 · Corey Patterson 6
RFCorey Hart 112 · Jody Gerut 37 · Frank Catalanotto 31
DHMat Gamel 6 · Casey McGehee 3
SPYovani Gallardo 3.1 · Manny Parra 0.8 · Carlos Villanueva 0.5 · Dave Bush 0.3 · Mike Burns 0.0
BP Trevor Hoffman 37 · Todd Coffey 28 · David Weathers 21 · Mitch Stetter 20 · Claudio Vargas 11 · Mark DiFelice 10 · Seth McClung 5 · Chris Smith 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2009 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Prince Fielder 25 arb 1625.9 7.0 +7.1
Ryan Braun 25 pre-arb 1585.0 1.0 +11.0
Mike Cameron 36 FA-elig 1494.1 10.0 -0.1
Yovani Gallardo 23 pre-arb 313.1 0.4 +7.0
Craig Counsell 38 FA-elig 1302.2 1.0 +4.3
Felipe Lopez↔ ARI 29 FA-elig 662.1 1.5 +3.5
Trevor Hoffman 41 FA-elig 551.7 6.0 -1.9
Casey McGehee 26 pre-arb 1161.6 0.4 +3.4
Rickie Weeks Jr. 26 FA-elig 371.3 2.5 +0.7
J.J. Hardy 26 arb 1151.0 4.7 -2.3
Manny Parra 26 pre-arb 270.8 0.4 +1.4
Todd Coffey 28 arb 780.7 0.8 +1.0
Mark DiFelice 32 pre-arb 590.7 0.4 +1.2
Mike Rivera 32 FA-elig 410.6 0.4 +1.1
Corey Hart 27 arb 1150.5 3.2 -1.9
Carlos Villanueva 25 arb 640.5 0.4 +0.7
Mat Gamel 23 pre-arb 610.4 0.4 +0.6
Alcides Escobar 22 pre-arb 380.4 0.4 +0.5
Dave Bush 29 arb 220.3 4.0 -3.2
Jason Kendall 35 FA-elig 1340.3 5.0 -4.2
Claudio Vargas↔ LAD 31 FA-elig 280.3 0.3 +0.4
Chris Narveson 27 210.3
Frank Catalanotto 35 770.1
John Axford 26 70.1
Mike Burns 30 150.0
Carlos Corporán 25 10.0
Mitch Stetter 28 pre-arb 710.0 0.4 -0.3
Jason Bourgeois 27 240.0
Hernan Iribarren 25 pre-arb 120.0 0.4 -0.4
David Riske 32 FA-elig 10.0 4.2 -4.2
Jesus Colome↔ WSN 31 50.0
Josh Butler 24 3-0.1
Bill Hall↔ SEA 29 FA-elig 76-0.2 4.8 -5.2
R.J. Swindle 25 6-0.2
Jeff Suppan 34 FA-elig 30-0.2 12.8 -13.2
Tim Dillard 25 2-0.2
Braden Looper 34 FA-elig 34-0.2 4.8 -5.3
Chris Duffy 29 arb 19-0.3 0.4 -1.0
Jorge Julio 30 FA-elig 15-0.3 0.9 -1.6
David Weathers↔ CIN 39 FA-elig 25-0.3 1.3 -2.0
Corey Patterson↔ WSN 29 11-0.3
Brad Nelson 26 pre-arb 19-0.5 0.4 -1.5
Jody Gerut↔ SDP 31 FA-elig 85-0.5 1.2 -2.3
Chris Smith 28 35-0.5
Seth McClung 28 FA-elig 41-1.0 1.7 -4.0

Key additions (new vs 2008)

PlayerfWAR
Felipe Lopez2.1
Trevor Hoffman1.7
Casey McGehee1.6
Claudio Vargas0.3
Chris Narveson0.3
Frank Catalanotto0.1

Key subtractions (gone from 2008)

Player2008 fWAR
CC Sabathia5.0
Ben Sheets4.3
Gabe Kapler1.7
Russell Branyan1.3
Ray Durham1.1
Brian Shouse0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

2009 payroll
$83.6M

What the front office was committed to as of 2009, 2009–2015. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (19)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Jeff Suppan3414.000$12.8M$6.4MFREE AGENT
Mike Cameron3614.000$10.0MFREE AGENT
Trevor Hoffman4116.000$6.0M$7.5MFREE AGENT
Jason Kendall3513.000$5.0MFREE AGENT
Bill Hall297.000$4.8MFREE AGENT
Braden Looper3411.000$4.8MFREE AGENT
David Riske3210.000$4.2M$4.5MFREE AGENT
Rickie Weeks Jr.266.000$2.5M$2.8M$4.5M$10.0M$10.0M$11.0MFREE AGENT
Seth McClung286.000$1.7MFREE AGENT
Felipe Lopez298.000$1.5MFREE AGENT$182k
David Weathers3918.000$1.3MFREE AGENT
Jody Gerut316.000$1.2M$2.0MFREE AGENT
Craig Counsell3814.000$1.0M$2.1M$1.4MFREE AGENT
Jorge Julio308.000$950kFREE AGENT
Mike Rivera328.000$415kFREE AGENT
Claudio Vargas316.000$311k$900kFREE AGENT
Frank Catalanotto3512.000FREE AGENT
Corey Patterson299.000FREE AGENT
Jesus Colome318.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Prince Fielder254.000$7.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
J.J. Hardy264.000$4.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Dave Bush295.000$4.0MFREE AGENT
Corey Hart275.000$3.2MFREE AGENT
Todd Coffey284.000$800kARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Villanueva253.000$447kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Duffy294.000$400kARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Narveson273.000ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Burns304.000ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (17)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Ryan Braun252.000$1.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Manny Parra262.000$426kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yovani Gallardo232.000$414kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mitch Stetter282.000$408kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark DiFelice321.000$403kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mat Gamel231.000$402kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey McGehee261.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alcides Escobar221.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Nelson261.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hernan Iribarren251.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Bourgeois270.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Smith280.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Axford260.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Corporán250.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
R.J. Swindle25
Josh Butler24
Tim Dillard250.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Brewers 2009; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3