CIN⇄MIL

CINCIN Walt Jocketty net +$0.0M net +0.1

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $0M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 2010 odds 82% → 83% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jim EdmondsOF·40y·L/L

−$1.6M−$1.6M± $0M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.8/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

1.65/yr blended

Horizon

0.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

MILMIL Douglas Melvin net +$0.0M net -0.1

received +$37.6M+$37.6M ± $49M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 6.8 ± 6 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2010 odds 27% → 27% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chris DickersonOF·28y·L/L

+$37.8M+$37.8M± $49M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 6.8± 6 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.3/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

1.42/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.