RRosternomics

Brewers MIL

GM: Douglas Melvin

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.98× league · TAB +13.5
+13.5TAB — talent above budget4th/30
+14.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)3rd/30
11.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars2nd/30
-3.6dead WAR — sub-replacement drag3rd/30
18%dead money %2nd/30
0.593win %3rd/30
47.5roster fWAR5th/30
+23surplus $M (value vs cost)6th/30
$94Mpayroll $M14th/30

2011: made playoffs · 96–66. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFNyjer Morgan 95GCarlos Gómez 87GJerry Hairston Jr. 20G
LFRyan Braun 147GJerry Hairston Jr. 23GMark Kotsay 19G
RFCorey Hart 126GMark Kotsay 30GNyjer Morgan 20G
SSYuniesky Betancourt 149GCraig Counsell 23GJosh Wilson 11G
2BRickie Weeks Jr. 115GJerry Hairston Jr. 30GCraig Counsell 25G
3BCasey McGehee 147GJerry Hairston Jr. 49GFelipe López 24G
1BPrince Fielder 159GMark Kotsay 11GCasey McGehee 5G
STARTERSZack Greinke 3.4WARYovani Gallardo 3.3WARShaun Marcum 3.0WARRandy Wolf 2.3WARChris Narveson 1.5WAR
CJonathan Lucroy 132GGeorge Kottaras 36GWil Nieves 17G
DHPrince Fielder 3GRickie Weeks Jr. 2GMat Gamel 2G
BULLPEN John Axford 46svLaTroy Hawkins 20hFrancisco Rodríguez 17hKameron Loe 16hTakashi Saito 10hZach Braddock 3hTim Dillard 1hMitch Stetter 1h
CJonathan Lucroy 132 · George Kottaras 36 · Wil Nieves 17
1BPrince Fielder 159 · Mark Kotsay 11 · Casey McGehee 5
2BRickie Weeks Jr. 115 · Jerry Hairston Jr. 30 · Craig Counsell 25
3BCasey McGehee 147 · Jerry Hairston Jr. 49 · Felipe López 24
SSYuniesky Betancourt 149 · Craig Counsell 23 · Josh Wilson 11
LFRyan Braun 147 · Jerry Hairston Jr. 23 · Mark Kotsay 19
CFNyjer Morgan 95 · Carlos Gómez 87 · Jerry Hairston Jr. 20
RFCorey Hart 126 · Mark Kotsay 30 · Nyjer Morgan 20
DHPrince Fielder 3 · Rickie Weeks Jr. 2 · Mat Gamel 2
SPZack Greinke 3.4 · Yovani Gallardo 3.3 · Shaun Marcum 3.0 · Randy Wolf 2.3 · Chris Narveson 1.5
BP John Axford 46 · LaTroy Hawkins 20 · Francisco Rodríguez 17 · Kameron Loe 16 · Takashi Saito 10 · Zach Braddock 3 · Tim Dillard 1 · Mitch Stetter 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2011 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Ryan Braun 27 arb 1507.1 4.3 +13.0
Jonathan Lucroy 25 pre-arb 1366.0 0.4 +14.3
Prince Fielder 27 FA-elig 1624.7 15.5 -4.0
Corey Hart 29 FA-elig 1303.7 6.8 +2.3
Nyjer Morgan 30 arb 1193.7 0.5 +8.5
Zack Greinke 27 FA-elig 293.4 13.5 -5.3
Yovani Gallardo 25 arb 333.3 3.5 +4.6
Rickie Weeks Jr. 28 FA-elig 1183.3 4.5 +3.6
Shaun Marcum 29 FA-elig 333.0 4.0 +3.5
Randy Wolf 34 FA-elig 332.3 9.5 -3.8
Carlos Gómez 25 arb 942.2 1.5 +3.8
John Axford 28 pre-arb 741.5 0.4 +3.3
Chris Narveson 29 arb 301.5 0.4 +3.2
Kameron Loe 29 FA-elig 721.0 1.2 +1.2
Marco Estrada 27 pre-arb 430.7 0.4 +1.4
Francisco Rodríguez↔ NYM 29 FA-elig 310.7 5.2 -3.5
LaTroy Hawkins 38 FA-elig 520.7 4.2 -2.6
Jerry Hairston Jr.↔ WSN 35 FA-elig 450.7 0.8 +0.9
Craig Counsell 40 FA-elig 1070.4 1.4 -0.3
George Kottaras 28 arb 490.2 0.4 +0.1
Takashi Saito 41 arb 300.2 1.8 -1.2
Tim Dillard 27 pre-arb 240.2 0.4 -0.0
Taylor Green 24 pre-arb 200.1 0.4 -0.2
Logan Schafer 24 80.1 0.4 -0.2
Mark Kotsay 35 FA-elig 1040.1 0.8 -0.6
Mike McClendon 26 pre-arb 90.1 0.4 -0.3
Brandon Boggs 28 160.1
Sean Green 32 arb 140.0 0.9 -0.8
Frankie De La Cruz 27 110.0
Mike Rivera 34 10.0
Josh Wilson↔ ARI 30 FA-elig 540.0 0.7 -0.6
Martín Maldonado 24 3-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Mike Fiers 26 2-0.0
Eric Farris 25 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.4 -0.5
Mark DiFelice 34 3-0.1
Brandon Kintzler 26 pre-arb 9-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Brett Carroll 28 2-0.1
Zach Braddock 23 pre-arb 25-0.1 0.4 -0.7
Yuniesky Betancourt 29 FA-elig 152-0.1 4.3 -4.7
Sergio Mitre↔ NYY 30 FA-elig 22-0.2 0.8 -1.1
Mitch Stetter 30 arb 16-0.2 0.4 -0.8
Jeremy Reed 30 FA-elig 7-0.2 0.6 -1.0
Daniel Herrera↔ NYM 26 2-0.2
Casey McGehee 28 arb 155-0.3 0.5 -1.3
Wil Nieves 33 FA-elig 20-0.4 0.8 -1.8
Mat Gamel 25 pre-arb 10-0.5 0.4 -1.5
Felipe Lopez↔ TBR 31 16-0.5 0.1 -1.3
Erick Almonte 33 FA-elig 16-0.7 0.4 -2.1

Key additions (new vs 2010)

PlayerfWAR
Nyjer Morgan3.7
Zack Greinke3.4
Shaun Marcum3.0
Francisco Rodríguez0.7
Jerry Hairston Jr.0.7
Takashi Saito0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2010)

Player2010 fWAR
Jim Edmonds2.4
Gregg Zaun1.3
Lorenzo Cain1.2
Joe Inglett0.5
Alcides Escobar0.4
Chris Capuano0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2011 payroll
$93.8M

What the front office was committed to as of 2011, 2011–2017. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Zack Greinke276.057$13.5M$8.8MFREE AGENT
Randy Wolf3411.115$9.5M$8.0MFREE AGENT
Francisco Rodríguez297.150$5.2M$8.0M$655k$3.2M$3.5MFREE AGENT
Rickie Weeks Jr.288.000$4.5M$10.0M$10.0M$11.0MFREE AGENT
LaTroy Hawkins3814.054$4.2MFREE AGENT
Craig Counsell4013.037$1.4MFREE AGENT
Mark Kotsay3513.018$800kFREE AGENT
Jerry Hairston Jr.3513.000$750kFREE AGENT
Jeremy Reed308.000$550kFREE AGENT
Felipe Lopez318.027$91kFREE AGENT
Mike Rivera3410.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (17)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Prince Fielder275.068$15.5MFREE AGENT
Corey Hart295.038$6.8MFREE AGENT
Yuniesky Betancourt295.067$4.3MFREE AGENT
Ryan Braun273.129$4.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shaun Marcum294.128$4.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Yovani Gallardo253.108$3.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Takashi Saito415.000$1.8MFREE AGENT
Carlos Gómez253.141$1.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kameron Loe293.133$1.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Green324.160$875kARB 3FREE AGENT
Wil Nieves334.092$775kARB 3FREE AGENT
Sergio Mitre305.132$762kFREE AGENT
Josh Wilson303.047$652kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark DiFelice343.000ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Frankie De La Cruz274.000ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Boggs283.000ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Herrera263.000ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (20)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Casey McGehee282.028$478kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nyjer Morgan302.120$472kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Axford280.170$442kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Narveson291.102$442kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
George Kottaras282.021$440kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mitch Stetter301.146$427kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Braddock231.058$424kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Lucroy250.136$424kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Erick Almonte330.165$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Green240.124$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Kintzler260.027$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike McClendon260.086$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Farris250.002$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mat Gamel251.045$414kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Dillard270.064$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Schafer240.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marco Estrada271.035$414kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Martín Maldonado240.000$63kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Carroll282.068ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Fiers260.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Brewers 2011; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3