RRosternomics

Brewers MIL

GM: Douglas Melvin

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 4 in this regime · payroll 0.81× league · TAB +12.3
+12.3TAB — talent above budget1st/30
+3.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)9th/30
11.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars1st/30
-1.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag1st/30
14%dead money %4th/30
0.512win %14th/30
44.0roster fWAR4th/30
+26surplus $M (value vs cost)3rd/30
$67Mpayroll $M18th/30

Roster

CFBill Hall 130GCorey Hart 34GTony Gwynn Jr. 27G
LFGeoff Jenkins 121GKevin Mench 51GJoe Dillon 8G
RFCorey Hart 113GGabe Gross 45GKevin Mench 33G
SSJ.J. Hardy 149GCraig Counsell 27GTony Graffanino 1G
2BRickie Weeks Jr. 115GTony Graffanino 30GCraig Counsell 24G
3BRyan Braun 112GCraig Counsell 50GTony Graffanino 23G
1BPrince Fielder 153GTony Graffanino 9GJoe Dillon 5G
STARTERSYovani Gallardo 3.1WARJeff Suppan 2.5WARChris Capuano 2.2WARBen Sheets 2.1WARDave Bush 2.0WAR
CJohnny Estrada 113GDamian Miller 56GMike Rivera 11G
DHPrince Fielder 4GGabe Gross 3GJohnny Estrada 2G
BULLPEN Francisco Cordero 44svDerrick Turnbow 33hBrian Shouse 21hScott Linebrink 21hMatt Wise 13hRay King 11hChris Spurling 2hGreg Aquino 2h
CJohnny Estrada 113 · Damian Miller 56 · Mike Rivera 11
1BPrince Fielder 153 · Tony Graffanino 9 · Joe Dillon 5
2BRickie Weeks Jr. 115 · Tony Graffanino 30 · Craig Counsell 24
3BRyan Braun 112 · Craig Counsell 50 · Tony Graffanino 23
SSJ.J. Hardy 149 · Craig Counsell 27 · Tony Graffanino 1
LFGeoff Jenkins 121 · Kevin Mench 51 · Joe Dillon 8
CFBill Hall 130 · Corey Hart 34 · Tony Gwynn Jr. 27
RFCorey Hart 113 · Gabe Gross 45 · Kevin Mench 33
DHPrince Fielder 4 · Gabe Gross 3 · Johnny Estrada 2
SPYovani Gallardo 3.1 · Jeff Suppan 2.5 · Chris Capuano 2.2 · Ben Sheets 2.1 · Dave Bush 2.0
BP Francisco Cordero 44 · Derrick Turnbow 33 · Brian Shouse 21 · Scott Linebrink 21 · Matt Wise 13 · Ray King 11 · Chris Spurling 2 · Greg Aquino 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2007 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Prince Fielder 23 pre-arb 1584.7 0.4 +9.8
Corey Hart 25 arb 1404.2 0.4 +8.7
J.J. Hardy 24 pre-arb 1513.9 0.4 +8.1
Yovani Gallardo 21 203.1 0.4 +6.3
Rickie Weeks Jr. 24 arb 1183.1 1.3 +5.4
Ryan Braun 23 1132.5 0.4 +5.0
Jeff Suppan 32 FA-elig 352.5 6.2 -0.9
Francisco Cordero 32 FA-elig 662.4 5.4 -0.3
Chris Capuano 28 arb 292.2 3.2 +1.6
Ben Sheets 28 FA-elig 242.1 11.1 -6.7
Dave Bush 27 arb 342.0 0.5 +3.9
Bill Hall 27 arb 1361.6 3.1 +0.2
Geoff Jenkins 32 FA-elig 1321.2 7.3 -4.7
Brian Shouse 38 FA-elig 731.2 1.0 +1.6
Kevin Mench 29 arb 1011.1 3.4 -1.0
Derrick Turnbow 29 FA-elig 771.0 2.5 -0.3
Tony Graffanino 35 FA-elig 860.8 3.2 -1.5
Gabe Gross 27 arb 930.8 0.4 +1.3
Joe Dillon 31 390.7
Matt Wise 31 FA-elig 560.7 1.1 +0.5
Craig Counsell 36 FA-elig 1220.6 2.8 -1.5
Manny Parra 24 90.6 0.4 +0.9
Claudio Vargas 29 arb 290.6 2.5 -1.3
Tony Gwynn Jr. 24 pre-arb 690.3 0.4 +0.2
Carlos Villanueva 23 pre-arb 590.2 0.4 +0.1
Seth McClung 26 140.2
Damian Miller 37 FA-elig 580.2 2.2 -1.9
Mike Rivera 30 110.2
Scott Linebrink↔ SDP 30 FA-elig 270.1 0.8 -0.5
Greg Aquino 29 arb 150.0 0.4 -0.3
Mitch Stetter 26 60.0
Chris Spurling 30 490.0
Ray King↔ WSN 33 FA-elig 12-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Mel Stocker 26 9-0.0
Elmer Dessens↔ COL 36 FA-elig 12-0.0 1.2 -1.2
Vinny Rottino 27 8-0.1
Jose Capellan↔ DET 26 7-0.1
Grant Balfour↔ TBR 29 3-0.2 0.0 -0.5
Laynce Nix 26 arb 10-0.3 0.4 -1.0
Johnny Estrada 31 FA-elig 120-0.3 3.4 -4.1

Key additions (new vs 2006)

PlayerfWAR
Yovani Gallardo3.1
Ryan Braun2.5
Jeff Suppan2.5
Joe Dillon0.7
Craig Counsell0.6
Manny Parra0.6

Key subtractions (gone from 2006)

Player2006 fWAR
Doug Davis2.1
Corey Koskie1.7
Carlos Lee1.5
Jeff Cirillo1.4
Tomo Ohka0.9
David Bell0.8

Current & Historical Payroll

2007 payroll
$66.9M

What the front office was committed to as of 2007, 2007–2013. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (16)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Ben Sheets286.000$11.1M$12.1MFREE AGENT
Geoff Jenkins329.000$7.3MFREE AGENT
Jeff Suppan3212.000$6.2M$8.2M$12.8M$6.4MFREE AGENT
Francisco Cordero328.000$5.4MFREE AGENT
Johnny Estrada316.000$3.4MFREE AGENT
Tony Graffanino3511.000$3.2MFREE AGENT
Craig Counsell3612.000$2.8M$2.8M$1.0M$2.1M$1.4MFREE AGENT
Derrick Turnbow297.000$2.5M$3.4MFREE AGENT
Damian Miller3710.000$2.2MFREE AGENT
Elmer Dessens3611.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Matt Wise317.000$1.1MFREE AGENT
Brian Shouse3814.000$975k$2.0MFREE AGENT
Scott Linebrink307.000$818kFREE AGENT
Ray King338.000$152kFREE AGENT
Grant Balfour296.000$50kFREE AGENT
Mike Rivera306.000$395k$415kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Kevin Mench295.000$3.4MFREE AGENT
Chris Capuano284.000$3.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Bill Hall275.000$3.1MFREE AGENT
Claudio Vargas294.000$2.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Rickie Weeks Jr.244.000$1.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Dave Bush273.000$450kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Greg Aquino293.000$399kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gabe Gross273.000$398kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Corey Hart253.000$395kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Laynce Nix264.000$390kARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Spurling304.000ARB 3FREE AGENT
Seth McClung264.000ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Capellan263.000ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Prince Fielder232.000$415kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.J. Hardy242.000$400kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Villanueva231.000$384kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Gwynn Jr.241.000$381kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Manny Parra240.000$380kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yovani Gallardo210.000$380kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Braun230.000$380kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Dillon312.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mel Stocker26
Mitch Stetter260.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vinny Rottino270.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Brewers 2007; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3