RRosternomics

Brewers MIL

GM: Douglas Melvin

Overview

WINDOW ↘ cooling
cheap & winning · year 3 in this regime · payroll 0.81× league · TAB +0.5
+0.5TAB — talent above budget15th/30
-4.2WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)22nd/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars16th/30
-3.3dead WAR — sub-replacement drag6th/30
24%dead money %9th/30
0.463win %24th/30
32.2roster fWAR18th/30
+4surplus $M (value vs cost)8th/30
$62Mpayroll $M21st/30

Roster

CFBrady Clark 114GGabe Gross 33GTony Gwynn Jr. 19G
LFKevin Mench 55GCorey Hart 26GGabe Gross 20G
RFGeoff Jenkins 133GCorey Hart 37GGabe Gross 8G
SSBill Hall 127GJ.J. Hardy 32GTony Graffanino 13G
2BRickie Weeks Jr. 92GTony Graffanino 67GJeff Cirillo 12G
3BDavid Bell 143GCorey Koskie 70GJeff Cirillo 42G
1BPrince Fielder 152GJeff Cirillo 13GCorey Hart 2G
STARTERSDave Bush 4.0WARChris Capuano 3.8WARBen Sheets 3.7WARDoug Davis 2.1WARTomo Ohka 0.9WAR
CDamian Miller 98GMike Rivera 44GChad Moeller 29G
DHPrince Fielder 1GRickie Weeks Jr. 1G
BULLPEN Francisco Cordero 22svJose Capellan 16hBrian Shouse 15hMatt Wise 14hDan Kolb 6hDerrick Turnbow 4hRick Helling 2hGeremi Gonzalez 0h
CDamian Miller 98 · Mike Rivera 44 · Chad Moeller 29
1BPrince Fielder 152 · Jeff Cirillo 13 · Corey Hart 2
2BRickie Weeks Jr. 92 · Tony Graffanino 67 · Jeff Cirillo 12
3BDavid Bell 143 · Corey Koskie 70 · Jeff Cirillo 42
SSBill Hall 127 · J.J. Hardy 32 · Tony Graffanino 13
LFKevin Mench 55 · Corey Hart 26 · Gabe Gross 20
CFBrady Clark 114 · Gabe Gross 33 · Tony Gwynn Jr. 19
RFGeoff Jenkins 133 · Corey Hart 37 · Gabe Gross 8
DHPrince Fielder 1 · Rickie Weeks Jr. 1
SPDave Bush 4.0 · Chris Capuano 3.8 · Ben Sheets 3.7 · Doug Davis 2.1 · Tomo Ohka 0.9
BP Francisco Cordero 22 · Jose Capellan 16 · Brian Shouse 15 · Matt Wise 14 · Dan Kolb 6 · Derrick Turnbow 4 · Rick Helling 2 · Geremi Gonzalez 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2006 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Bill Hall 26 arb 1485.1 0.4 +9.7
Dave Bush 26 pre-arb 344.0 0.4 +7.6
Chris Capuano 27 arb 353.8 0.5 +7.1
Ben Sheets 27 arb 173.7 9.6 -2.3
Gabe Gross 26 pre-arb 1172.4 0.3 +4.4
Doug Davis 30 FA-elig 342.1 3.2 +1.1
Corey Koskie 33 FA-elig 761.7 6.2 -2.8
Carlos Lee↔ TEX 30 FA-elig 1021.5 5.4 -2.4
Tony Graffanino↔ KCR 34 FA-elig 601.5 1.0 +2.0
Jeff Cirillo 36 FA-elig 1121.4 0.8 +1.9
Geoff Jenkins 31 FA-elig 1471.3 7.8 -5.2
Rickie Weeks Jr. 23 arb 950.9 1.2 +0.6
Tomo Ohka 30 FA-elig 180.9 4.5 -2.7
Damian Miller 36 FA-elig 1010.9 3.2 -1.5
David Bell↔ PHI 33 FA-elig 530.8 1.7 -0.2
Prince Fielder 22 pre-arb 1570.7 0.3 +1.0
J.J. Hardy 23 pre-arb 350.5 0.4 +0.7
Francisco Cordero↔ TEX 31 FA-elig 280.5 1.5 -0.6
Carlos Villanueva 22 100.3 0.3 +0.3
Mike Rivera 29 460.3
Corey Hart 24 pre-arb 870.3 0.3 +0.2
Brady Clark 33 FA-elig 1380.2 3.2 -2.9
Ben Hendrickson 25 40.2
Dennis Sarfate 25 80.2
Dan Kolb 31 FA-elig 530.1 2.0 -1.7
Dana Eveland 22 90.1 0.3 -0.1
Geremi Gonzalez↔ NYM 31 210.0
Zach Jackson 23 80.0
Justin Lehr 28 pre-arb 160.0 0.3 -0.3
Allan Simpson 28 20.0
Derrick Turnbow 28 FA-elig 64-0.0 1.0 -1.0
Vinny Rottino 26 9-0.0
Laynce Nix↔ TEX 25 arb 10-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Rick Helling 35 FA-elig 20-0.0 0.8 -0.9
Jose Capellan 25 pre-arb 61-0.0 0.3 -0.4
Matt Wise 30 FA-elig 40-0.0 0.7 -0.7
Jorge De La Rosa↔ KCR 25 pre-arb 18-0.0 0.2 -0.3
Chris Mabeus 27 1-0.1
Drew T. Anderson 25 9-0.1
Jared Fernandez 34 arb 4-0.1 0.3 -0.5
Joe Winkelsas 32 7-0.2
Brian Shouse↔ TEX 37 FA-elig 59-0.2 0.7 -1.0
Mike Adams 27 2-0.2 0.3 -0.7
Chris Demaria 25 10-0.2
Chris Spurling↔ DET 29 arb 7-0.2 0.3 -0.8
Tony Gwynn Jr. 23 32-0.4
Chris Barnwell 27 13-0.5
Chad Moeller 31 FA-elig 29-0.5 0.7 -1.7
Kevin Mench↔ TEX 28 arb 40-0.5 0.9 -1.9

Key additions (new vs 2005)

PlayerfWAR
Dave Bush4.0
Gabe Gross2.4
Corey Koskie1.7
Tony Graffanino1.5
David Bell0.8
Francisco Cordero0.5

Key subtractions (gone from 2005)

Player2005 fWAR
Lyle Overbay2.3
Russell Branyan1.1
Gary Glover0.8
Wes Helms0.7
Junior Spivey0.6
Julio Santana0.5

Current & Historical Payroll

2006 payroll
$61.5M

What the front office was committed to as of 2006, 2006–2012. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (18)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Geoff Jenkins318.000$7.8M$7.3MFREE AGENT
Corey Koskie338.000$6.2MFREE AGENT
Carlos Lee307.000$5.4MFREE AGENT
Tomo Ohka307.000$4.5MFREE AGENT
Damian Miller369.000$3.2M$2.2MFREE AGENT
Brady Clark336.000$3.2MFREE AGENT
Doug Davis307.000$3.2MFREE AGENT$4.2M
Dan Kolb317.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
David Bell3311.000$1.7MFREE AGENT
Francisco Cordero317.000$1.5M$5.4MFREE AGENT
Derrick Turnbow286.000$1.0M$2.5M$3.4MFREE AGENT
Tony Graffanino3410.000$953k$3.2MFREE AGENT
Jeff Cirillo3612.000$850kFREE AGENT
Rick Helling3512.000$850kFREE AGENT
Chad Moeller316.000$700kFREE AGENT
Brian Shouse3713.000$658k$975k$2.0MFREE AGENT
Matt Wise306.000$650k$1.1MFREE AGENT
Geremi Gonzalez319.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Ben Sheets275.000$9.6MFREE AGENT
Rickie Weeks Jr.233.000$1.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Mench284.000$882kARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Capuano273.000$450kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bill Hall264.000$418kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jared Fernandez345.000$337kFREE AGENT
Chris Spurling293.000$317kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Laynce Nix253.000$182kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Rivera295.000FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (22)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
J.J. Hardy231.000$355kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dave Bush262.000$352kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Lehr282.000$337kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Adams272.000$335kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gabe Gross262.000$335kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Capellan252.000$330kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Prince Fielder221.000$330kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Corey Hart242.000$330kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dana Eveland221.000$327kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Villanueva220.000$327kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge De La Rosa252.000$217kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Winkelsas32
Allan Simpson282.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Hendrickson25
Dennis Sarfate250.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Mabeus27
Zach Jackson230.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Demaria25
Tony Gwynn Jr.230.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Barnwell27
Drew T. Anderson25
Vinny Rottino260.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Brewers 2006; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3