MIL⇄KCR

MILMIL Douglas Melvin net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $31M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.0 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Max St. PierreC·27y·R/R

+$0.7M+$0.7M± $31M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.0± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#775 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.82 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

KCRKCR Dayton Moore net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$7.2M+$7.2M ± $15M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Ben HendricksonP·26y·R/R

+$7.6M+$7.6M± $15M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#304 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.32/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.