SDP⇄MIL

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net +$12.0M net +2.6

received +$19.2M+$19.2M ± $40M expected surplus · +$8.0M realized received 4.9 ± 5 expected · 2.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2007 odds 33% → 34% (+0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Will Inman#91P·20y·R/R

+$15.6M+$15.6M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 2.5± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

Composite #91.0 prospect (Baseball America #91 (2007)) → 0.42/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.42/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Joe ThatcherP·25y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$8.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 2.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Steve GarrisonP·20y·B/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#295 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

MILMIL Douglas Melvin net −$12.0M net -2.6

received +$4.0M−$3.2M ± $14M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2007 odds 65% → 64% (-0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Scott LinebrinkP·30y·R/R

+$4.3M−$3.5M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

0.86/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.