MIL⇄DET

MILMIL Douglas Melvin net +$2.4M net +0.3

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $24M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2007 odds 63% → 64% (+1.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chris CodyP·23y·L/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#232 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Dave Dombrowski net −$2.4M net -0.3

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $20M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.5 ± 2 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 2007 odds 54% → 52% (-1.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

José CapellánP·26y·R/R

−$0.3M−$0.3M± $20M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.5± 2 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

Composite #25.0 pedigree (Baseball America #25 (2005)) — fell off 2 lists since, regressed → 0.22/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

0.13/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.