MIL⇄LAD

MILMIL Douglas Melvin net +$6.4M net +0.3

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $6M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.8 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2007 odds 63% → 64% (+1.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Elmer DessensP·36y·R/R

+$0.8M+$0.8M± $6M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.8± 1 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.0/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

0.78/yr blended

Horizon

1.1 control yr × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

LADLAD Ned Colletti net −$6.4M net -0.3

received −$0.8M−$1.6M ± $14M expected surplus · −$9.6M realized received 1.1 ± 2 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2007 odds 27% → 25% (-1.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brady ClarkOF·34y·R/R

−$0.6M−$1.4M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$9.6M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

0.84/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.90 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.