RRosternomics

Brewers MIL

GM: Douglas Melvin

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.41× league · TAB +5.8
+5.8TAB — talent above budget10th/30
-2.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)22nd/30
5.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars20th/30
-4.7dead WAR — sub-replacement drag14th/30
21%dead money %10th/30
0.416win %25th/30
28.9roster fWAR20th/30
+15surplus $M (value vs cost)2nd/30
$27Mpayroll $M30th/30

Roster

CFScott Podsednik 153GBrady Clark 9GDave Krynzel 2G
LFGeoff Jenkins 156GChris Magruder 10GBrady Clark 3G
RFBrady Clark 123GChris Magruder 16GDave Krynzel 8G
SSCraig Counsell 129GBill Hall 37GJunior Spivey 1G
2BJunior Spivey 58GKeith Ginter 54GBill Hall 50G
3BWes Helms 66GKeith Ginter 47GRussell Branyan 44G
1BLyle Overbay 158GWes Helms 10GRussell Branyan 2G
STARTERSBen Sheets 7.9WARDoug Davis 3.6WARVictor Santos 2.1WARWes Obermueller 1.5WARChris Capuano 0.6WAR
CChad Moeller 100GGary Bennett 75GMark Johnson 5G
DHJeff Liefer 3GTrent Durrington 1GKeith Ginter 1G
BULLPEN Dan Kolb 39svLuis Vizcaino 21hMike Adams 12hJeff Bennett 8hBrooks Kieschnick 5hMatt Wise 3hBen Ford 2hPedro Liriano 1h
CChad Moeller 100 · Gary Bennett 75 · Mark Johnson 5
1BLyle Overbay 158 · Wes Helms 10 · Russell Branyan 2
2BJunior Spivey 58 · Keith Ginter 54 · Bill Hall 50
3BWes Helms 66 · Keith Ginter 47 · Russell Branyan 44
SSCraig Counsell 129 · Bill Hall 37 · Junior Spivey 1
LFGeoff Jenkins 156 · Chris Magruder 10 · Brady Clark 3
CFScott Podsednik 153 · Brady Clark 9 · Dave Krynzel 2
RFBrady Clark 123 · Chris Magruder 16 · Dave Krynzel 8
DHJeff Liefer 3 · Trent Durrington 1 · Keith Ginter 1
SPBen Sheets 7.9 · Doug Davis 3.6 · Victor Santos 2.1 · Wes Obermueller 1.5 · Chris Capuano 0.6
BP Dan Kolb 39 · Luis Vizcaino 21 · Mike Adams 12 · Jeff Bennett 8 · Brooks Kieschnick 5 · Matt Wise 3 · Ben Ford 2 · Pedro Liriano 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2004 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Ben Sheets 25 arb 347.9 2.4 +11.2
Doug Davis 28 arb 343.6 0.5 +5.7
Geoff Jenkins 29 FA-elig 1572.5 8.7 -4.4
Lyle Overbay 27 arb 1592.2 0.3 +3.5
Victor Santos 27 312.1
Scott Podsednik 28 arb 1541.9 0.4 +2.9
Keith Ginter 28 arb 1131.8 0.4 +2.8
Brady Clark 31 arb 1381.8 0.4 +2.7
Wes Obermueller 27 pre-arb 261.5 0.3 +2.2
Craig Counsell 33 FA-elig 1401.3 3.2 -0.9
Junior Spivey 29 arb 591.3 2.4 -0.1
Russell Branyan 28 510.9
Mike Adams 25 460.7
Chris Capuano 25 pre-arb 170.6 0.3 +0.7
Dan Kolb 29 arb 640.6 1.5 -0.5
Dave Burba↔ SFG 37 FA-elig 450.5 0.4 +0.5
Matt Wise 28 300.5
Matt Kinney↔ KCR 27 arb 320.5 0.3 +0.6
Luis Vizcaino 29 arb 730.4 0.6 +0.1
Chris Magruder 27 560.3
Chris Saenz 22 10.2
Dave Krynzel 22 160.2
Ben Hendrickson 23 100.1
Ben Grieve↔ CHC 28 FA-elig 1080.1 0.6 -0.4
Matt Erickson 28 40.0
Brooks Kieschnick 32 FA-elig 770.0 0.4 -0.3
Jorge De La Rosa 23 5-0.0
Corey Hart 22 1-0.0
Adrian Hernandez 29 arb 6-0.0 0.4 -0.5
Gary Glover 27 4-0.0
Pedro Liriano 23 11-0.1
Bill Hall 24 pre-arb 126-0.1 0.3 -0.4
Trent Durrington 28 arb 53-0.1 0.3 -0.4
Mark Johnson 28 7-0.1
Travis Phelps 26 4-0.1
Jeff Liefer 29 16-0.2
Ben Ford 28 FA-elig 19-0.3 0.3 -0.8
Jeff Bennett 24 pre-arb 60-0.5 0.3 -1.1
Gary Bennett 32 FA-elig 75-0.5 0.6 -1.5
Chad Moeller 29 arb 101-1.1 0.4 -2.3
Wes Helms 28 FA-elig 92-1.6 1.7 -4.4

Key additions (new vs 2003)

PlayerfWAR
Lyle Overbay2.2
Victor Santos2.1
Craig Counsell1.3
Junior Spivey1.3
Russell Branyan0.9
Mike Adams0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 2003)

Player2003 fWAR
Richie Sexson3.6
Glendon Rusch2.3
John Vander Wal1.2
Eric Young Sr.1.2
Keith Osik0.6
Eddie Pérez0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

2004 payroll
$27.3M

What the front office was committed to as of 2004, 2004–2010. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Geoff Jenkins296.000$8.7M$7.3M$7.8M$7.3MFREE AGENT
Craig Counsell339.000$3.2MFREE AGENT$2.8M$2.8M$1.0M$2.1M
Wes Helms286.000$1.7M$2.8MFREE AGENT
Ben Grieve287.000$615kFREE AGENT
Gary Bennett329.000$600kFREE AGENT
Dave Burba3714.000$388kFREE AGENT
Brooks Kieschnick328.000$380kFREE AGENT
Ben Ford286.000$310kFREE AGENT
Russell Branyan286.000$800kFREE AGENT
Mark Johnson286.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (19)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Ben Sheets253.000$2.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Junior Spivey293.000$2.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Kolb295.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Luis Vizcaino295.000$550kFREE AGENT
Doug Davis285.000$450kFREE AGENT
Adrian Hernandez293.000$425kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Podsednik283.000$400kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Keith Ginter284.000$383kARB 3FREE AGENT
Brady Clark314.000$376kARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Moeller294.000$370kARB 3FREE AGENT
Lyle Overbay273.000$326kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trent Durrington285.000$305kFREE AGENT
Matt Kinney274.000$298kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Liefer295.000FREE AGENT
Gary Glover275.000FREE AGENT
Victor Santos273.000ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Wise284.000ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Magruder273.000ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Phelps263.000ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Wes Obermueller272.000$314kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bill Hall242.000$310kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Capuano251.000$305kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Bennett240.000$300kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge De La Rosa230.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Erickson28
Pedro Liriano230.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dave Krynzel22
Mike Adams250.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Hendrickson23
Chris Saenz22
Corey Hart220.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Brewers 2004; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3