CHW⇄MIL

CHWCHW Kenny Williams net +$15.2M net +1.0

received +$32.0M+$32.0M ± $44M expected surplus · +$12.0M realized received 7.1 ± 6 expected · 4.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2005 odds 45% → 47% (+2.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Scott PodsednikOF·29y·L/L

+$29.7M+$29.7M± $37M exp surplusrealized +$13.6M 5.5± 5 exp WARrealized 4.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.4/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

1.47/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Travis Hinton1B·24y·L/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#388 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Luis VizcaínoP·30y·R/R

+$0.2M+$0.2M± $9M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.3± 1 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

0.24/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.72 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

MILMIL Douglas Melvin net −$15.2M net -1.0

received +$14.4M+$14.4M ± $19M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 3.9 ± 2 expected · 3.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2005 odds 23% → 22% (-1.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Carlos LeeOF·29y·R/R

+$14.2M+$14.2M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 3.9± 2 exp WARrealized 3.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.7/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

2.62/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.